Bullion Banks “Selling Gold They Don’t Possess”

Huge paper gold sales are driving the gold price down every time it looks like stabilising, but as new physical gold supply moves East, this will surely lead to a massive short squeeze.

The statement in the title relates to a frustrated comment in a recent King World News interview with John Hathaway, a renowned gold stocks analyst who manages the well-respected Tocqueville Gold Fund in the USA.  Now, this factoid will not be news to regular readers of Mineweb,  or to any avid follower of the gold market, and is perhaps indicative of the way virtually all markets are manipulated by the world’s financial elite. 

In context, Hathaway’s statement in commenting on yet another gold price take-down was as follows: “These guys don’t even have to borrow the gold to sell it.  It’s probably a couple of bullion banks, and they use their balance sheets to justify the leverage of selling gold they don’t possess.  In some ways this is just a travesty.  We have entities moving this major market and making leveraged bets, but they do it without having to take physical possession and short the way you would do it on a normal exchange.

So they just wreak havoc in the gold market and damage investor psychology, but it will come to an end.  This is a continuing story that has to be watched.  Aside from the macro issues that surround gold, I think the chain of custody, the paper trail between derivative paper instruments and the real metal, is of great interest to me”  The full interview may be accessed by clicking here.

Now what is perhaps unspecified is why?  GATA will tell you it’s all part of a global effort, orchestrated by Central Banks, to control (suppress) the gold price.  They probably have a point.  The same argument could be put as that it is more a universal effort to shore up the U.S. dollar as the collapse of the greenback would throw global trade into disarray.  Gold is seen as the bellwether of dollar strength or otherwise.  But this is effectively the same argument as that of gold price suppression from a slightly different perspective.

But, in terms of gold, the dollar has been deteriorating dramatically over the years anyway.  The dollar’s only saving grace is that virtually every other currency against which it is measured has been deteriorating in purchasing power at an equal, or even greater, rate, giving a hugely misleading impression of the dollar’s own intrinsic strength.

Or it could just be that some the biggest investment banks and financial institutions have come to realise that gold is nowadays such a small part of the global investment scene that it can be manipulated for their own benefit with total impunity, regardless of the effect it can have on the individual gold investor or fund which looks on gold as a portfolio diversifier.

Or it could well be (probably is) a combination of both.  The financial elite can thus make obscene amounts of money, while the governments and central banks tacitly collude in turning a blind eye to what might be considered criminal activity in other markets, as it suits their own overall agendas for gold to be kept under control.  Consequently the regulators set up to control this kind of activity take little or no interest in investigating the very strange paper precious metals sales, which have been bearing no relation at all to the physical metal supply and demand situation.

We see and hear major investment banks’ analytical departments talking down gold in the most vehement terms, which because of their status in financial circles leads to massive sales of physical metal from weak holders, aggravated by computer stop loss selling, thus driving the price down dramatically, and then of the same banks climbing back into the market to buy up bullion at far lower prices ahead of a short term recovery.  Then rest for a few days, weeks or months and repeat the whole procedure all over again just as the metals seem to be starting to stabilise.  This seems to be happening with increasing frequency.  What a perfect way to make ridiculous amounts of money for those who have the financial strength to take advantage.

Meanwhile, there are the gold believers on the sidelines who may also have virtually unlimited pockets – the Chinese in particular – who must be feeling  every day is Christmas as they rake in physical gold at depressed prices, convinced that at some day in the future, by when they will have completely cornered the physical new gold market, the yellow metal’s price will soar, while Western paper gold will become worthless with no physical metal to back it.  As far as gold, and almost any other trade goes, the East looks to the long term, the West tends to look to tomorrow!

And as for the East cornering the market in physical gold, they are getting awfully close to doing this already.  Growing Chinese gold consumption is likely to account for close on 60% of new global gold production this year – and that is on the basis of already pretty well known figures – net Chinese gold imports through Hong Kong plus the country’s own domestic production, are together likely to reach well over 1,500 tonnes in calendar 2013.  If, as many surmise, China imports gold also through other ports of entry, which it does not disclose, then this percentage could be higher still.

Add into this India’s gold imports which, despite government attempts to control them, some estimate to also be close on reaching 1,000 tonnes this year (particularly if smuggled gold is included), then these two countries alone will together  account for nearly all the world’s 2013 newly mined gold supply.  And Chinese buying has been growing year on year. Meanwhile a number of other nations, mostly in Asia and the former Soviet union have also been consuming more gold so far in 2013, although none on quite the scale of China and India.

This suggests a run on physical gold may well be upon us soon.  So far this has been prevented by sales out of the big gold ETFs, and the rundown in COMEX inventories, diminishing scrap sales, plus the supply of any newly mined gold which is not already going directly into Eastern, Middle Eastern and FSU hands. 

Some think Central Bank gold may also be entering the market.  This is most likely to be leased gold and thus due to be returned, so it stays in their books.  But as physical gold goes into shorter and shorter supply, this may become increasingly difficult for those who have leased it to repay in kind.  Yet another indicator of a likely short squeeze ahead.  

Bullion Trader Maguire Describes Run on the London Gold Banks (on Max Keiser TV)

Interviewed yesterday by Max Keiser on the "Keiser Report" on the Russia TV television network, London bullion trader and silver market rigging whistleblower Andrew Maguire said there is a run on the London bullion banks.

The Federal Reserve's big dumping of paper gold in April bought a little time for the banks but only increased the offtake of real metal from the grossly overleveraged fractional-reserve gold banking system, that the Bank of England is advancing metal into the London market every day to avert defaults.

The United Kingdom's gold sales begun in 1999 were undertaken to rescue gold short Goldman Sachs, and that the Western gold banking system is now in the same short squeeze that threatened it 14 years ago. Yesterday's "Keiser Report" is posted at YouTube and the interview with Maguire is about 13 minutes long and begins at the 13-minute mark here:




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Peter Schiff on Bullion Banks, The Hidden Trove of QE Money

Would you trust the New York Fed with 7,000 tons of the yellow metal?  Perianne talks to Peter Schiff about what central banks are doing with gold.

Then, Prime Interest Producer Justine Underhill explains what exactly the Fed has been doing vis-a-vis QE.

Europe Does It Again: Cyprus Depositor Haircut "Bailout" Turns Into Saver "Panic", Frozen Assets, Bank Runs, Broken ATMs

Late last night, after markets closed for the weekend, following an extended discussion the European finance ministers announced their "bailout" solution for Russian oligarch depositor-haven Cyprus: a €13 billion bailout (Europe's fifth) with a huge twist: the implementation of what has been the biggest taboo in European bailouts to date - the  impairment of depositors, and a fresh, full blown escalation in the status quo's war against savers everywhere.

Specifically, Cyprus will impose a levy of 6.75% on deposits of less than €100,000 - the ceiling for European Union account insurance, which is now effectively gone following this case study - and 9.9% above that. The measures will raise €5.8 billion, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who leads the group of euro-area ministers, said.

But it doesn't stop there: a partial "bail-in" of junior bondholders is also possible, as for the first time ever the entire liability structure of a European bank - even if it is a Cypriot bank - is open season for impairments. The logical question: why here, and why now? And what happens when the Cypriot bank run that has taken the country by storm this morning spreads everywhere else, now that the scab over Europe's biggest festering wound is torn throughout the periphery as all the other PIIGS realize they too are expendable on the altar of mollifying voters and investors in the other countries that make up Europe's disunion.

Bloomberg's take on the sacrifice of Cyprus' savers:

Officials have struggled to find an agreement that would rescue Cyprus, which accounts for just half of a percent of the euro region’s economy, without unsettling investors in larger countries and sparking a new round of market contagion. Policy makers began meeting at 5 p.m. yesterday in a hastily convened gathering, seeking to overcome differences on bondholder losses while financial markets were closed.

“Further measures concern the increase of the withholding tax on capital income, a restructuring and recapitalisation of banks, an increase of the statutory corporate income tax rate and a bail-in of junior bondholders,” according to a communique released by ministers after the talks. It didn’t specify whether bank or sovereign bond holders could be affected.

The European Central Bank will use its existing facilities to make funds available to Cypriot banks as needed to counter potential bank runs. Depositors will receive bank equity as compensation.

Finance Minister Michael Sarris said the plan was the “least onerous” of the options Cyprus faced to stay afloat.

“It’s not a pleasant outcome, especially of course for the people involved,” said Sarris. The Cypriot parliament will convene tomorrow to vote on legislation needed for the bailout.

Needless to say, the locals are delighted:

In the coastal town of Larnaca, where irate depositors queued early to withdraw money from cash machines, co-op credit societies that are normally open on Saturdays stayed closed.

"I'm extremely angry. I worked years and years to get it together and now I am losing it on the say-so of the Dutch and the Germans," said British-Cypriot Andy Georgiou, 54, who returned to Cyprus in mid-2012 with his savings.

"They call Sicily the island of the mafia. It's not Sicily, it's Cyprus. This is theft, pure and simple," said a pensioner.

For the real response, look to Russia:

The island's bailout had repeatedly been delayed amid concerns from other EU states that its close business relations with Russia, and a banking system flush with Russian cash, made it a conduit for money-laundering.

"My understanding is that the Russian government is ready to make a contribution with an extension of the loan and a reduction of the interest rate," said the EU's top economic official, Olli Rehn.

Almost half of [Cyprus'] depositors are believed to be non-resident Russians, but most of those queuing on Saturday at automatic teller machines to pull out cash appeared to be Cypriots.

While "saving", pardon the pun, yet another insolvent country merely has the intent of keeping it in the Eurozone, and thus preserving Europe's doomed monetary block and bank equity for a little longer, this idiotic plan will achieve two things: i) infuriate not just Russians but very wealthy, and very trigger-happy Russians. 

The revenge of Gazpromia will be short and swift, and we certainly would not want to be Europeans next winter when the average heating level of Western European will depend on the whims of Russian natural gas pipeline traffic; ii) start a wave of bank runs first in Cyprus and soon everywhere else that has the potential of being the next Cyrpus.

Sure enough, here come the bank runs:

While the tax on deposits will hurt wealthy Russians with money in Cypriot banks, it will also sting ordinary citizens. Some ATMs in the country have run out of cash, Erotokritos Chlorakiotis, general manager of the Cooperative Central Bank, told state-run CYBC.

Forzen assets and "national bank holidays" are baaaaack:

Funds to pay the levy were frozen in accounts immediately, ECB Executive Board Member Joerg Asmussen said. The levy will be assessed before Cypriot banks reopen on March 19 after a March 18 national holiday. Sarris said electronic transfers will also be limited until then.

Europe's response: this is a unique situation. Just like the Greek bailout was unique;  just like the Irish and Portuguese bailouts were unique;  just like the bailout of Spanish banks was unique.

“As it is a contribution to the financial stability of Cyprus, it seems just to ask a contribution of all deposit holders,” Dijsselbloem said, noting the country’s financial industry was five times the size of its economy. The plan includes “unique measures” that address the “exceptional nature” of Cyprus and show “inflexible commitment to financial stability and the integrity of the euro area.”

Curiously, even everyone's favorite liar, former Eurogroup president, Jean-Claude Juncker, has a warning that this "bailout" is the worst thing Europe could have done:

Skeptics including Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker had said that imposing investor losses in Cyprus risked reigniting the financial crisis that has so far pushed five of the euro zone’s 17 members to seek aid. Last year, the euro area took what officials called a unique step to ask Greek bondholders to absorb losses.

But fear not: Europe has promised this absolute resolution taboo won't repeat itself...

When asked if a deposit assessment could be ruled out for future rescues, Rehn said in an interview: “It can and there is no concrete case where it should be considered.”

... Until it does repeat itself of course - after all the fundamental problem for Europe has never been resolved: the continent is still broke, and it still is running out of good, unencumbered assets (which as being repledged by the banking oligarchy) with every passing day.

Now the only thing unknown is Russia's response:

Corporate tax rates in Cyprus will rise to 12.5 percent to 10 percent as part of the deal, Dijsselbloem said. Rehn told reporters that Russia, whose banks have loaned as much as $40 billion to Cypriot companies of Russian origin, would ease terms on its existing loans to Cyprus as the rescue unfolds. Cyprus’s finance minister is scheduled to fly to Moscow on March 20.

What is known, however is that Cypriots have taken the news in stride.... and to their local ATM machine, which sadly is showing the following message: "Your transaction has been cancelled due to a technical issue. This ATM cannot complete withdrawals at this time" (courtesy of Yannis Mouzakis).

The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Silver Investigation

There has been an explosion of interest and commentary these past few days as a result of a front page story in Monday’s edition of the influential Financial Times (of London). The story stated that the CFTC was set to drop its four year investigation into alleged silver price manipulation due to insufficient evidence to bring charges, according to three unnamed sources. 

I went to sleep Sunday evening when the story first appeared prepared to wake up to similar and confirming stories in other publications. Instead, there were no other stories confirming the case was set to be dropped; only strong statements that the FT was story was “premature” and “inaccurate in many respects” by a named source, Commissioner Bart Chilton of the agency.

 

The CFTC’s silver investigation is a hot button issue and the FT story, as well as Commissioner Chilton’s response to it, set off an outpouring of emotion and conjecture in the precious metals world. And for good reason, as this is an extremely important issue. There can be no greater concern than whether a market is manipulated in price. 

The issue of a silver manipulation is also a divisive matter, even within the CFTC itself; otherwise there likely wouldn’t have been leaks that the investigation was over and the immediate response of not so fast. As is usually the case with extremely divisive issues (like politics and elections), emotions take hold and the real issues can get distorted. 

Let me try to frame the picture in an unemotional manner. Admittedly, that’s no easy task since I was the prime initiator behind this silver investigation and the two prior CFTC silver investigations in 2004 and 2008. (Too bad there’s no Olympic event for initiating government investigations).

However, the truth is that four years ago I was not trying to get the Commission to investigate, as they had just completed a few months earlier, in May 2008, their second silver investigation in four years. By then, I knew where the Commission stood on whether silver was manipulated and it was pointless to ask them to investigate again. I had a different motive in mind when I urged readers to write to the CFTC about the now-infamous Bank Participation Report of August 2008.

That was the report that showed that one or two US banks held an obscenely large and concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures that amounted to 20% of world production and 30% of the entire COMEX silver market. No major market had ever been that concentrated. I knew that this short position was so concentrated that, in and of itself, it proved silver was manipulated because the price would be radically higher in its absence. That is always the litmus test for manipulation, namely, what would the price most likely be if a concentrated position did not exist? 

As a result of the August 2008 Bank Participation Report and subsequent CFTC correspondence to US lawmakers, I also learned at that time that JPMorgan was the big silver short, as I speculated on in this article. http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_comentary/09-02-08.html This is when and where the precious metals world came to learn that the big silver short was JPMorgan.

I asked readers to write to the CFTC not to investigate silver anew, but for the agency to simply explain how a big bank holding such a large percentage of the market would not be manipulation. This is a question that the Commission should have answered immediately since it was so basic to commodity law. The last thing I intended was for the agency to embark on a multi-year phony investigation as a delaying tactic for not being able to answer a basic regulatory question. 

Because the Commission could not explain the legitimacy of JPMorgan’s concentrated short position, they continued to drag out resolution by pretending to investigate. But four years is an extraordinarily long time for any government investigation, phony or otherwise, and it appears that the CFTC has to confront the issue soon; hence the FT article.

While the FT article was disappointing (at least it mentioned my name in a non-derogatory manner) and Chilton’s response was encouraging, the reality is that it is unlikely that the investigation will be resolved much differently than the version leaked to the paper. For one thing, nobody likes admitting they had royally screwed up and if the Commission were to bring manipulation charges now in silver, it would be admitting that it missed the wrongdoing for the previous two decades, despite continuous and documented warnings from 1986. How likely is that?

More importantly, were the agency to charge JPMorgan with manipulation of the silver price (as it should) that could set off a series of events that could easily grow out of control. One thing that makes the silver manipulation so potentially profound is that the core allegation is of a crime in progress. The CFTC has never busted up a manipulation that was in force; like most government agencies, it only reacts after the fact. Don’t take that solely as a complaint, but more as an observation that governments are more reactive than proactive. 

Because the silver manipulation is very much in force, were it to be terminated by CFTC actions against JPMorgan and/or others, it would be a “live” event for the first time. History shows that all manipulations end violently. In the case of silver, since it has been depressed in price by a downward manipulation, its termination would necessarily cause prices to explode higher. Any charge brought by the CFTC would send a clear signal to the world that silver had been depressed in price and was undervalued and, therefore, should be purchased. This would cause a flood of buying and discourage new selling, causing the price to truly explode, most likely in disorderly market conditions. Do you find it likely that the CFTC would wish to cause that disorderly pricing that could lead to further unsettled conditions in other markets?

If JPMorgan (and perhaps the CME Group) were found to be the main culprits in the silver manipulation and the CFTC brought charges against them, the repercussions to JPM and the CME could be a threat to them as going concerns. It was never a case that JPMorgan couldn’t financially afford to buy back its concentrated silver short position; it was always a case that should JPM ever move to buy back aggressively to the upside that would prove conclusively that it had been manipulating the price of silver all along. 

That would set JPMorgan (and the CME) up for a legal holocaust, both civil and criminal. There has been talk of a civil litigation nightmare for those banks deemed guilty in the developing Libor manipulation; but determining damages will be difficult because the Libor rates were allegedly manipulated both up and down, making the damages unclear and hard to prove. Were there to be findings of a downward manipulation in silver, those damaged, from investors to producing companies and countries could easily demonstrate the damage. Back in the Hunt Bros silver manipulation of 1980, one of the successful litigants was Minpeco, the government producer organization from Peru, who I remember collected more than $100 million. That would be chicken feed compared to the consequences of the much longer downward silver manipulation of today by JPMorgan. And this says nothing of potential criminal liability. 

JPMorgan is perhaps the most important and influential US bank and for the CFTC to move against them in a matter as important as basic market manipulation could lead to unintended consequences that could threaten the world’s financial system. Do you think the CFTC would dare challenge the supremacy of JPMorgan considering that potential financial fall-out? Besides, as I have written previously, JPMorgan is too big to sue, at least matched up against the CFTC. The matter of the bank manipulating any market is something that JPMorgan would defend against to the death, as for it to be found guilty could possibly end the bank in its current form.

JPMorgan would certainly spend $5 billion (only one quarter’s net profits) to fight any charges in connection with a silver manipulation and, at a minimum, delay a legal resolution for decades. On the other hand, the CFTC is struggling to fund the whole agency on $200 to $300 million annually. This is most likely the reason behind the leak to the FT about the silver investigation being dropped, namely, the CFTC is no match for JPMorgan and the agency knows it. This has nothing to do with law, or justice, or doing what is right; it is simply a case that the crooks at JPMorgan (and the CME) can bully anyone they chose, including the US Government. The most plausible alternative explanation, of course, is that the Treasury Dept ordered the CFTC to keep its hands off JPMorgan. Either way, it stinks.

The truth is that the silver investigation was a ruse from the start in that the CFTC could never have moved against JPMorgan or the CME in any circumstance. The proof of that is evident in the many other specific instances of price manipulation in silver that have occurred after the soon to be dropped investigation began. The most obvious instances were the two separate 30% and 35% price smashes in a matter of days that occurred in silver in 2011. There never were such blatant price declines in such a short time in any world commodity in history, to say nothing about there being no obvious supply/demand changes to account for the declines. 

In other words, the CFTC started their third silver investigation four years ago as a way of avoiding having to explain how JPMorgan could be allowed to hold a clearly manipulative concentrated short position and then ignored the two greatest manipulative price events in commodity market history while the phony silver investigation was under way. Think of how devious and dishonest the CFTC has been; it announces a formal silver investigation to avoid having to answer bedrock regulatory questions, then ignores the two most manipulative prices events in history claiming it can’t comment on them because there is an active investigation under way. If government officials could ever be horse-whipped for malfeasance and for failing to protect the public interest, surely the CFTC’s performance in silver would permit it. 

I realize that what I have written to this point paints a picture that is not optimistic for the resolution of the silver investigation that most would favor. I am sorry about that, but I try to be an analyst and not an entertainer. That said I’d like to spend some time explaining why the outcome of a dropped case may not matter much and that the net result is good for silver. 

More than anything, this FT leak was likely a trial balloon for the CFTC to gauge public reaction to it dropping the case. If so, the reaction couldn’t be clearer; even I was taken aback by the near universal condemnation of the agency for proposing to drop the case. I think what got to people the most was the suggestion that the agency would walk away without bothering to explain the concentration and the two historic price drops of 2011, to say nothing of the almost daily beatings in silver as a result of crooked High Frequency Trading. If anything, the FT article may have given legs to the silver manipulation allegations.

While it was a mainstream media publication that leaked the story, the silver manipulation is surely not a mainstream media issue. The silver story is an Internet and private publication issue that grew despite being ignored in the mainstream media. As such, any declaration that the matter is now closed will not close it anywhere outside the MSM, where it was never accepted to begin with. It’s not just that the silver manipulation was never accepted by the MSM, it was more a case of it never being allowed to be openly discussed. But legitimate questions of undue market concentration and historic and unjustified silver price movements are matters worthy of transparent examination that MSM censorship has been unable to stifle. 

Not only is the matter not going away, the leak to drop the case may bring greater attention to it. Such attention could prove to be the death knell for the silver manipulation, as the last thing the silver manipulators want or need is a fully transparent examination of the facts. One of my longest held beliefs has been that as time rolls on more would become aware of the real silver story and once they did, more investment demand in silver would result. That has occurred and any new attention brought to silver as a result of a dropped investigation will likely accelerate the process. The truly amazing thing is in how slowly the real silver story has spread in the ranks of super big investors. Aside from Eric Sprott, very large investors have overlooked the silver story completely. I am as certain as I can be that these very large investors just haven’t taken the time to look objectively at silver. I think it’s a case of silver being such a universally known item that most people assume they already know all the facts because they know what silver is. 

This includes very large investors who, in addition, may actually be turned off that so many smaller investors have invested in silver. It’s a common human failing to dismiss something because others thought to be less knowledgeable got there first. In the long run, however, very large investors are more concerned with superior returns, so the key is getting them to look at silver objectively. The dropping of the silver manipulation may be that key.

Perhaps the most amazing thing of all, at least to me, is the glaring fact that even after four years of non-stop public allegations about involvement in the silver manipulation, JPMorgan still remains the big short. It is hard for me to comprehend how such a large and powerful financial organization (as well as the CME) could silently tolerate the obvious reputational damage which is accruing. While JPMorgan’s short COMEX silver position is in the lower range of what it has been since the Bear Stearns takeover of March 2008, it remains shockingly large and concentrated. After last week’s big increase of 3000 contracts, JPM’s short position, at 18,000 contracts (90 million oz), is still more than three and a half times the proposed position limit in silver.

The most plausible explanation for why JPMorgan has not rid itself completely of this manipulative short position is because it can’t do so easily. This is particularly true if JPMorgan tried to buy back its silver short position on rising prices. It would be a shock to the silver market system if the biggest short seller of last resort suddenly turned buyer. In essence, this is the root problem with concentrated positions in general – they cannot be unwound without market upheaval. 

For JPMorgan to turn to the silver buy side would beg the question – who would sell to them and at what price? The problem with the sharply higher silver prices that JPMorgan would cause if it turned silver buyer is that it would confirm that the bank was, in fact, manipulating the price of silver all along. To my mind, this means JPMorgan is trapped. They can’t run and they can’t hide. This is precisely the conclusion that any large investor would reach if that investor took the time to study silver closely. I can’t see how that won’t happen in time and a more bullish set up is hard to imagine.

Of course, I would be the happiest guy in the world to be proven wrong about what the CFTC will do with the ongoing silver investigation. But the potential of the likely greater exposure of the real issues in silver that a dropped investigation would bring is plenty good. With silver, it’s always been about getting people to learn the real facts.

Ted Butler

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Allocated Bullion Storage: Do You Really Own the Bullion?

Worldwide economic uncertainty has created a growing interest in precious metals as a way to preserve wealth. Today, global risks for investors include currency devaluation, sovereign debt defaults, bond market collapses and stock market losses, all underpinned by ever-increasing government debt.

For protection from impending economic Armageddon, investors are turning in increasing numbers to the traditional safe haven of precious metals. Unfortunately, many today don't know how to purchase or store bullion, and consequently may find themselves as vulnerable to financial collapse as those who didn't purchase any bullion at all.

This increased interest in precious metals as portfolio insurance has spawned a new generation of precious metals-based financial products, many of which are paper proxies or derivatives of bullion. There are even unregulated markets for the exchange of "digital gold."

A clear case for transparency

In 2007, former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge gave a speech entitled "A Clear Case for Transparency" to the Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce. "...[I]investors will have to take on more responsibility for diligent research," he said, "so that they can better understand the nature of their investments and demand greater transparency where it is now lacking ... they must do their own homework and make a concerted effort to understand what they are buying."

Most investors do not read the fine print of the agreements they sign with respect to financial investments; they make assumptions, but do not definitively know if they own actual bullion. Some are attracted to certain bullion investments because of low premiums and low storage fees, but when was the last time Wall Street and the major banks gave the investing public a deal?

Investors who don't do their homework may be dismayed to find that their safe haven asset has proved to be anything but. These same people perform rigorous due diligence when purchasing a home, car or boat, demanding that they have clear legal title to the asset in question. The same attention to detail must be paid when investing in bullion.

The most important concept to understand is that a financial institution CAN sell an investor's bullion if the agreement states that it can. Banks are not raiding allocated accounts; rather, they are following the provisions of the contract, in which the bullion is not allocated despite an investor's assumptions.

There does appear to be cause for concern regarding the transparency of bullion products. As reported by the economic news website ZeroHedge, financial services giant Morgan Stanley paid out $4.4 million in June 2007 to settle a class action lawsuit brought by clients after the firm charged them to "buy and store" precious metals, but did neither .

Similarly, a class action lawsuit filed in New York's federal court accuses UBS Financial Services of misleading silver investors, and charging them storage fees for metals that were never purchased, let alone allocated or stored for them.

A larger problem has been brewing for several years now, that of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are generally viewed as a low-cost panacea that replaces almost any investment strategy, including the purchase of gold bullion, and they are giving investors a false sense of security.

False sense of security for ETF investors

ETFs started as equity index vehicles, in which brokers acting as Authorized Participants borrowed shares from institutions, hedge funds, mutual funds or their clients' margin accounts to contribute to the Origination Basket of shares. They received ETF shares at Net Asset Value (NAV) in exchange, and sold them to investors at NAV - keeping all of the money. This is standard practice, as brokers have always been able to borrow shares from clients' margin accounts for the purpose of shorting or for lending to other brokers.

Essentially, many ETFs hold assets that have been borrowed. Because there are no specific prohibitions to prevent the same practice from being used in precious metals ETFs, the same methodology is likely being used. Many investors are attracted by the low management fees offered by precious metals ETFs, but few understand the problems that may arise when more than one person has claim to the same asset.

ETF-based financial crisis could make 2008 look like child's play

This ETF structure will work during normal market conditions. However, it may result in losses and disputes if the Authorized Participants, acting as market makers, become insolvent or step aside during a precipitous decline. If a bank or brokerage firm becomes an insolvent Authorized Participant, either the lender of the assets or the ETF shareholders will suffer losses. During a market crash, existing holders may be unable to sell their ETF shares. Although this possibility was considered remote when ETFs were created, the recent and recurring failures of banks and brokerage firms make these concerns far more real .

 

The bottom line on ETFs is that they are tracking vehicles with multiple claims/counterparty risks on their assets as well as their shares. As debt-based stress on the global financial system continues to build, the flash-crash of 2010 may well have foreshadowed an ETF-based financial crisis that will make the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 look like child's play.

Own bullion with clear title

When we at Bullion Management Group sit down with clients seeking to own bullion, we present them with our Precious Metals Pyramid Chart. Moving up the pyramid increases risk; moving down the pyramid increases safety. A portfolio's foundation should consist of physical bullion owned outright. 

Farther up the pyramid are proxies of bullion in one form or another that are more risky and often less liquid; in other words, the opposite of a safe haven asset you can count on in times of financial stress. Bullion should always meet two criteria: It should not be someone else's liability, and it should not be someone else's promise of performance.

To establish a physical bullion portfolio foundation with metals that are stored on an allocated and insured basis, one that will protect against what could be called ethical mayhem in today's financial sector, investors must, as Governor Dodge advised, make a concerted effort to understand what they are buying. While reading legal documents and prospectuses is tedious, the truth is in the fine print and investors must do their own due diligence, and beware of complex investment structures.

Demand documentation that transfers title directly to the purchaser

For a bullion product, be it a fund or actual bullion bars, to earn its place as the foundation of a portfolio, the bullion purchaser must demand documentation that legally transfers title of specific, physical bars directly to them. Do not accept IOUs, paper proxies or derivatives. It is important to read the purchase documents carefully to ensure they convey legal title. Only after the purchaser has legal title can they enter into a binding custody agreement for bullion storage on an allocated, insured basis. In that agreement, the purchaser must be able to identify all terms and rights concerning insurance and secure, allocated storage.

Proper insurance and allocated storage in a credible, guarded vault costs money, so steer clear of bullion products promising low fees. If the deal appears too good to be true, the physical bullion may not exist. 

What the investor may have is paper bullion that will not offer protection when it is most needed; they may simply be an unsecured creditor of the dealer. It is hardly prudent to be tempted by low storage fees that will save a fraction of a percentage point while risking an entire bullion holding. Short cuts and penny pinching are inadvisable strategies for any asset intended as an ultimate safe haven of wealth protection.

Home storage not worth the risk of invasion or physical assault

Many people think that storing their bullion at home is a good way to economize on physical bullion storage fees, but be aware that any sizable amount of home-stored bullion will not be covered by a household insurance policy.

Keeping a modest--and secret--stash of small-denomination gold or silver for barter purposes is recommended in the event that ATM machines aren't working, or a 'bank holiday' is announced. This may seem like an excess of caution until you consider that, earlier this year, the Bank of Italy authorized the suspension of payments by Bank Network Investments Spa (BNI) without first advising depositors .

 

Unless absolute secrecy is maintained, home storage means putting yourself and your family at risk of a home invasion. There has been an increase of home invasions in England during Asian wedding season, when gold gifts are stored in homes, and street gangs and professional thieves are only too happy to relieve people of their precious metals .

 

Even in peace-loving Canada, a British Columbia man lost his life savings of $750,000 in silver bars to knife-and-gun wielding thugs who arrived at his door disguised as police officers. When he let them in, the 'officers' forced him to open his vault and stole the silver . For any sizable amount of bullion, home storage is clearly not worth the risk.

Many precious metals dealers do not trust banks for storage, and prefer private vault facilities. They may rethink this approach on reviewing a British case where authorities raided three private safe deposit box centres, and opened 6,717 private boxes . The owners of the boxes were required to provide proof of the contents of their box before their possessions were returned. 

Most could not do so, and much of the cash involved went missing while other items are in dispute. The ensuing litigation will likely last for decades; in the meantime, those who stored bullion in their boxes have been relieved of their metal, and may only receive compensation in the amount of the value of the bullion at the time of the raid.

Another consideration is that safe deposit box contents cannot be insured, and there is no proof that anything is actually in the box. Investors who are still interested in private vaults or safe deposit box centres should perform due diligence on the financial condition of the operator and the owner of the vault, since stored assets may be at risk in the case of a private vault's insolvency.

Storing bullion at home, in a safe deposit box or in a private vault is another form of false economy, wherein investors put their safe haven asset at risk to save a small amount in storage fees.

LBMA bullion in LBMA member vaults

Another important aspect of due diligence for a proper foundation of wealth preservation is the assurance that your bullion is in the form of Good Delivery bars, and stored in the vault of a London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) member.

The LBMA is a wholesale, over-the-counter market for trading gold and silver. Its members include the majority of the bullion banks that hold gold, plus producers, refiners, fabricators and other traders throughout the world.

The reason for insisting on LBMA bullion is that it assures the purchaser of the quality and fineness of the bars. Once gold is outside a chain of integrity such as that of the LBMA, it may need to be re-assayed before it can be sold. This prevents gold-plated Tungsten bars from entering the chain of integrity. 

Re-assaying is time consuming, engenders extra cost and once again defeats the purpose of a safe haven store of wealth that offers efficient liquidity.

We constantly hear stories of discount bullion, or bullion sold at no premium to the spot price. The likelihood that this is pure bullion from an ethical source is slight to none.

In case of fire, you need an extinguisher, not a picture of one

Bullion demand is clearly growing as both sovereign nations and the world's largest financial institutions buckle under the burden of unserviceable debt, leaving helicopter-loads of new money printing and associated currency devaluation as the only way out.

Investors can protect their portfolios by purchasing physical bullion. Just as with any large asset purchase, demand documentation that confers legal title to the bullion you are purchasing, review a written custodial agreement that specifies insured, allocated storage without giving the custodian the right to deal with the bullion in any way, and insist on Good Delivery bars.

When the next financial firestorm erupts, you need real, physical bullion and not a paper proxy; just as in a fire you need a real fire extinguisher, not a picture of one.

The Ignorance Is Willful - Dr. Burry

You might remember Dr. Michael Burry as the hedge fund manager who made hundreds of millions of dollars betting on the collapse of the housing market.  You, also, might remember everyone from the mainstream media (MSM) to the Federal Reserve claimed nobody could have seen the 2008 financial collapse coming.  

How did Dr. Burry know a financial catastrophe was on the way while most financial experts and media were totally in the dark?  This year’s commencement address at UCLA’s Department of Economics was given by Dr. Burry, and he says, “The ignorance is willful.”

(Click here to see Dr. Burry’s June 20, 2012,UCLA address.)  

“The ignorance is willful.”  I think you can say the same thing about the ongoing banking crisis.  Last Thursday, credit rating giant Moody’s downgraded the long-term credit ratings of 15 of the biggest North American and European banks.  All but four were cut at least two notches, and these are some of the biggest banks in the world.  RBC, JP Morgan, BNP Paribas, RBS and UBS are household names in Canada, U.S., France, UK and Switzerland.  (Japan’s Numara and Australia’s Macquarie were downgraded earlier by Moody’s.)  (Click here for a complete list of downgraded banks from Business Insider.)  

 I can’t find a time when a major credit ratings company like Moody’s has downgraded this many major banks in so many parts of the world at the same time.  Sure, critics of Moody’s will say they are way behind the curve, but the fact is the company has come out with bold and devastating bank downgrades when the world is being told it is in “recovery.” Please keep in mind, dozens of Italian and Spanish banks were, also, downgraded in the last few months by Moody’s.


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Greece Financial Crisis On the Edge with Max Keiser 05-24-2012

Greece Financial Crisis On the Edge with Max Keiser 05-24-2012


In this edition of the show Max interviews Karl Denninger from market-ticker.org.

He talks about the finical crisis in Greece and how it will unfold in near future.
Karl Denninger was the CEO of MCSNet in Chicago, one of the area's first Internet providers. He is a founding contributor to conservative blog market-ticker.org and was one of the early members of the Tea Party movement.

Gold & Whirlwind Crisis

What an incredible whirlwind of crisis from seven foul winds around the globe. Most emanate from Europe, which is far from its climax in crisis. Three steps will lead to full blown eruption, the first Italy with rising bond yields and a bank run, the second Spain with rising bond yields and admission that banks are far more insolvent than recognized, and third the failure of all three largest French banks as the principal swine creditor.

In fact, a great split has occurred, as France has been cut off from the future world by Germany, which looks East to Russia and China. The Berlin leaders will not be needing French squires to carry their bags, but instead will watch as Paris becomes the appointed leader of the PIIGS. As the most exposed banks to Southern European sovereign debt, pig slop of immeasurable weight is tied around the laced Parisian necks. The common link across the Atlantic pond is derivative corruption. The Europeans are doing their best to force feed a convenient but cockeyed definition of a debt default event. The Americans resort to old fashioned theft, calling it missing funds, blaming the crisis, while breaching the sacred segregated client fund directive. The crisis struck the US shores with the hidden JPMorgan chamber implosion and urgently needed theft, whose visible face is the MF Global heist and failure. My belief is that JPMorgan used its MFG patsy to anchor derivative trades, that just happened to be long sovereign debt in Europe. Nobody in his right mind, even a Corzine of GSax pedigree would place such large wrong trades unless obligated as a syndicate cog in the machinery. The big US banks will sit on the bankruptcy boards and decide the fate of victim accounts without client representation in a full scale insider exercise that makes a mockery of justice. That has been the American norm.

Witness the middle stage of the collapse of the COMEX, which has lost all trust as segregated client cash accounts vanished in a vast ongoing commingling campaign. One must conclude that JPMorgan must have really needed the money. The thought of a Madoff Redux comes to mind to the alert but weary. The MF Global vanished funds will eventually be measured over $3 billion. The actual Madoff pilfered funds totaled $150 billion, triple the more palatable figure often quoted. The locations of the missing funds have commonality, the ruling untouchable syndicate. Gold smells the destruction of the monetary and banking systems, aggravated by Western recession. Gold smells new application of debt to repair old failed debt structures, where central bankers chase their tails. Gold smells the vast reconstruction project for the giant Western banks, not too big to die of internal rot, only too big to let fail by a gavel. The twisted bizarre attempt to control commodity prices by presiding over a series of negligent policies is coming to an end. The Western recession is too much for the insolvent banks to bear. The US banks have real estate debt rot, but the European banks have both real estate debt rot and PIIGS debt rot. In truth, the US banks share great risk from across the pond. The thrust of the French-based central bank over the pen of swine cannot be far from a formal announcement. Not quite what the highbrow French had in mind for leadership. Better to rule in clubmed pig slop than serve as lackey in the teutonic core.

GREAT CREDIT SWINDLE

The death of the monetary system has its main motive in the refusal of governments either to manage finances responsibly or to repay debt in the usual manner. They accumulate larger debts and plan the swindle of inflation in return. Their only viable approach, hardly a solution, is to inflate debt and thus to reduce its burden.Creditors feel betrayed, seek defensive measures, like to cut off credit and loan up quietly on gold, while lying about reserves. The creditors are not involved in the important decisions to debase the currency. Those decisions are made unilaterally by the debtors. A run on the US Treasury Bonds is occurring by angry foreign creditors. The USDollar is kept afloat by some secret corners. The pages of history are littered with examples of government debt default, but more often with the public paying for debt reduction in basic price inflation. The debts accumulated by many governments large and small cannot be repaid. History shows that tangible assets like Gold & Silver protect from the worst economic consequences. For the current financial crisis, only one pathway seems likely, although painful. The system cannot be remedied, only patched over. Vast inflation is the only politically viable method of repudiating these unmanageable obligations. Of key importance is the velocity of money in determining whether or not inflation turns into hyper-inflation, which requires final demand not to falter badly. Hyper-inflation requires sustained activity like an engine, which cannot stall. Higher price inflation is coming like night follows day, but probably not an extreme case. It will be painful though, since the cost structure will be the primary damage center. The US Consumer Price Inflation runs at 11.1% in the honest broker Shadow Govt Statistics calculation, which is painful enough.

The retreat is well along, the isolation to the hyper inflation machinery well along, the sovereign bond ruin well along. The Fed was hit with withdrawals of $83.3 billion on November 2nd, the largest withdrawals coming from its deposit accounts. This single day removal was the largest since February 2009, and not associated with quarterly tax payments. The withdrawals are being demanded by countries angered by USGovt policies, like China, Russia, Latin American, and other Asian players. It is only the beginning of a bloodletting. A run on USTBonds is in progress, covered up by Quantitative Easing and Operation Twist, programs given innocuous names but integral to the grand debasement process underway. The bond exodus is complemented nicely to significant removal of depository funds from the major banks in the 'Move Your Money' movement. Despite pleading by the big US banks for customers not to extract their money, impressively 650 thousand customers moved a total $4.5 billion dollars out of the big banks. The damage done is 10x to 20x, due to fractional banking practices. The funds went into smaller banks and credit unions in October.

TOO BIG TO FAIL: ASSURED FAILURE

The entire concept of Too Big to Fail is a hangman's noose around the US banks and the banking system. The debate over cause or effect is curious. The related propaganda is obscene, if not comical. The smear campaign against gold will turn absurd, before the USDollar breaks permanently on the world stage, in the form of rejection in international commerce. It is called the Dollar Kill Switch, and it will be applied to the crude oil market. Conformity with the Too Big To Fail doctrine is synonymous with the path to systemic failure. Charles Hugh Smith sees the destructive force clearly. The absent liquidity of the biggest Western banks assures the systemic failure itself. Smith wrote, "The irony is that the propping up of a deeply intrinsically pathological and destructive financial system is not saving the economy, rather it is the reason the economy is imploding. The Big Lie technique of propaganda is to reverse the polarity of reality: we are told up is down until we believe it. We are told that liquidating the overhang of bad debt, leverage, and hedges would destroy the world as we know it. The truth is that keeping the zombie system from expiring and covering up the corruption with propaganda is actually destroying the world as we know it. Thus the collapse of the current financial system of central banks, pathological Wall Street, and insolvent banks would be the greatest possible good and the greatest possible positive for the global economy and its participants."

G-20 SUGGESTION LEGITIMIZES GOLD

The G-20 group actually suggested that Germany donate a block of gold reserves for European banking system stability, as in to fortify the stability fund. Obviously the Germans told them to get lost and mind their own business. The German nation has been the ox & yoke to pull the Southern European cart for a decade. They have had their fill of seeing savings drained! The emerging nations showed a mix of chuptzpah and ignorance. Look for the PIIGS nations instead to forfeit their central bank gold in the next several months, part of the Chinese discounted purchase of sovereign bonds. The Chinese are not stupid, careful to put hooks in the deal. In a bold stroke, the G-20 finance ministers actually demanded that German Gold reserves be used to backstop the EFSFund for bank bailouts. The backward irony of the story is that Germany will in no way whatsoever hand over Gold bullion to stabilize a system it finds revolting on a beneficial one-way street. In doing so, the G-20 Ministers actually legitimized Gold as the premier asset. The fund seeks EUR 1 trillion but in reality needs EUR 3 trillion, possibly supplied via leverage. Much confusion has circulated around the story, not fully confirmed. But Reuters cited that, "The Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung reported that Bundesbank reserves, including foreign currency and Gold, would be used to increase Germany's contribution to the crisis fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by more than 15 billion Euros ($20 bn)."

The recipient of the alleged transfer would be the most insolvent of global hedge funds, the European Central Bank. One must suspect that no pledge was made, and a trial balloon was floated. It was promptly shot down. Germany has lost its appetite to make huge annual donations to support an unjustified standard of living for Southern Europe, which grossly lacks industry, a strong work ethic, and ability to collect taxes. Those nations abused the low Germanic interest rate, built housing bubbles, perpetuated young pension benefits, permit tax evasion, and face ruin. Germany will no longer sacrifice Euros at the foot of any PIIGS altar, plainly stated.Conclude that the EuroZone, the Euro Central Bank, and the European Financial Stability Facility are all dead broke and insolvent, and worse, have zero credibility in the capital markets. The real ugly controversy comes soon when collateral placed in return for grandiose aid will be lost, including some central bank gold bullion. The European Commission has no voice either, having pandered to the bankers.

GOLD PROPAGANDA & REALITY

The CME has advised that 1.42 million ounces of registered COMEX silver inventory is unavailable for delivery due to MF Global bankruptcy, as well as 16,645 registered ounces of gold also unavailable for delivery. That is a lot of bullion in breach of contract. The lawyers will be lined up very quickly to carve the metals exchanges into pieces. The COMEX is totally broken, unable to honor basic contracts, unable to deliver from committed legal contracts, unable to even protect client funds from commingling grabs. But during a period when investors cannot protect themselves, an ambush could easily come in the next week to push down the Gold price in the usual manner, via naked shorting. As the grandiose destinations become clear for vast new monetary creation, the Gold & Silver prices will run higher. The big immediate questions center on how much dithering the banker elite that run our governments will permit with malignant motive before the decisions are made, and how much economic deterioration will be permitted to contain commodity prices before the decisions are made. The destinations are bank bailouts for toxic sovereign bonds, recapitalization of the big Western banks, coverage of new USGovt debt, and economic stimulus. A few $trillion will be needed, as estimates by well-informed veterans mount like a stack of white papers. The economic damage is being done, even though the crude oil price has finally zipped above the $100 mark.

Ironically, as the orchestrated Libyan liberation war finished, the crude oil price has moved from $77 in early October to $102 today. Demand is not coming from economic growth, but from hedging against the ruined major currencies, all of them. Global QE is alive! With the gold market in turmoil from grand Asian raids, from absent COMEX inventory, from snatches of GLD inventory, from pilfered COMEX fringe accounts, from continued naked shorting, the safer bet with quicker payoff has been crude oil hedges. But Gold will have its day, and Silver will scoot through the opened phalanx as usual. The delay in reckoning is laden with frustration, but the day of $2000 is coming. It is something the bankers cannot stop. They are so busy kicking cans down the road, they do not see the Rotweillers and Dobermans sniffing their trails.

ITALY IS KAPUT, CONTAGION WILD

The biggest and most important danger signal for complete eruption of the Eropean financial crisis is the Italian sovereign bond. Their yield surpassed the 7% mark to sound great alarms, completing a Jackass forecast over the last several months. This level is the recognized crisis signal, the call to arms, the call to remove deposits, the call to demand collateralized loans. Their sovereign bond yield has zoomed upward in response to higher margin requirements. Italy is the next Greece, which was a crisis prelude. Italy scares the American and European central bankers witless. The Italian Govt Bond yield remained for 40 days above the 5% mark before it hit 6% two weeks ago. Its rise has accelerated, as the panic widens. The Italian yield suddenly surged past 7% with haste last week, reaching 7.5%, setting off shrill alarms.The Italian leadership is in question, its Prime Minister to be a victim. The 10-year yield went below 7% only because of heavy emergency buying by the Euro Central Bank, against their stated wishes. The Italian banks are far weaker than they reveal. The next PIIGS domino is soon to fall, for certain to take down Spanish Govt Bonds also. The new head of the EuroCB, the resplendent GSax pedigreed Mario Draghi, must cover the debt or watch the European Monetary Union crumble in a sea of fire. The central bank must make overt commitments of magnitude. If the crumble happens upon inaction, expect 20 Lehman events with numerous bank failures, starting with France. The conflagration would extend to London and New York.

The market is stating that Italian Govt repayment of rollover debt is in crisis mode, highly unlikely. Italy must roll over more than EUR 360 billion (=US$490 bn) of debt before end 2012. The borrowing costs for Italy have become highly burdensome, if not crippling and destructive. The debt rollover in upcoming auctions stands as the immediate event to watch. Lenders do not wish to hand money to Italy for servicing past debt interest, good money after bad. Even if budget reforms succeed, the austerity measures will constitute more poison pills that assure a faster economic recession from cut projects, more unemployment, and hostile response by the public, like worker strikes. Recall Jackass comments made a year ago. The prevailing opinion was that Italy had favorable debt ratios, like cumulative debt to GDP, like annual deficit to total budget. My objection was that ratios mattered little, when the required debt volume to finance was too large in a crisis filled bond market. My forecast was for Italy to erupt along with Spain eventually. That viewpoint has turned out to be correct.

Barclays has declared that Italy is finished kaput. The next Greek ruin on the plaza square is happening in Rome. The bond market is rejecting Italy loudly. Italy has dragged its feet for two months, rejecting warnings, refusing budget cuts, while its prime minister has given defiant messages loaded with denial. He even accused financial journalists of causing a run on their bonds. Time has run out on Italy. Watch for France to catch the viral contagion, being a major creditor. The Euro Central Bank is the only buyer of Italian Govt Bonds. They are the focus for action. When Italy erupts, it will spread to Spain first, and then quickly to France as its primary creditor. The nation of Spain is not in the news much at all, but it will be next year, just like Italy with the same type of problems, but compounded by a bigger housing bust. The research staff at Barclays in London has declared that Italy is formally finished and cooked, as they put it "Italy is now mathematically beyond the point of no return." The Greek tragedy has finally struck Italy. Expect violence on the streets of Rome and other cities, an Italian tradition where innocuous brands of communism have splintered roots.

BANK RUN NEXT FOR ITALY

An invisible bank run is occurring in Italy. Their banks are trapped, attempting to de-leverage on a perilous tightrope forced by tightened bank reserve requirements. They have developed a big dependence on Euro Central Bank funds. The Credit Default Swap market indicates an expected Italian default. Next the bank deposits will exit. Italian banks have grown overly dependent on the European Central Bank. They borrowed EUR 111.3 billion (=US$152 bn) from the central bank at the end of October, up from EUR 104.7 billion in September and a smaller EUR 41.3 billion in June, as per Bank of Italy data. The five biggest lenders accounted for 61% of the country's draw on ECB funds in September, double that of January. The banks include UniCredit, Intesa Sanpaolo, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Banco Popolare, and UBI Banca. These distressed banks must reduce their debt load in a highly dangerous bond environment marred by distrust and volatility. The decline in Italian Govt Bonds has rendered great damage to the private banks, reducing their reserve ratios and eroding loan collateral devoted to support regular business credit.

The Italian banks are trapped in the Italian sovereign debt securities. The austerity plans being forced will ensure a recession, thus even more losses for the banks. The run on Italian banks is just beginning, to become more visible in a couple months. The bond market expects some calamities. The debt insurance for individual banks demonstrates the extreme level of distress. European private banks are dumping sovereign bonds, hampering the already strained market. They are forced to comply with tougher newly enforced BIS reserves requirements. They are fighting to survive, but exposing the sovereign bonds as junk, and worse, dragged down by old real estate debts just like in the United States. The entire system is collapsing without potential remedy unless all major banks are liquidated, and that will never happen. They house the political power center, and the bond fraud laboratories. At the heart of the vulnerability is the fractional banking system itself. Insolvency arrives quickly and only worsens until a run occurs. Then comes rampant bank failures.

THE EUROPEAN BANKING SYSTEM IS TOPPLING. IT CANNOT BE STOPPED. GREAT CONTROVERSY WILL RESULT. MOST LARGE BANKS ARE POSTING HUGE LOSSES FROM GREEK EXPOSURE. THE NEXT ROUND OF LOSSES FROM THE OTHER P.I.I.G.S. NATIONS WILL BE AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE LARGER. THE EXTREME BREAKDOWN WILL OCCUR WHEN THE BIG FRENCH BANKS GO BUST.

Even Citigroup chief economist Willem Buiter recognizes the extreme risk and dire nature of the situation in Europe. He said, "I think we have maybe a few months, it could be weeks, it could be days, before there is a material risk of a fundamentally unnecessary default by a country like Spain or Italy, which would be a financial catastrophe dragging the European banking system and North America with it. So [the central banks] they have to act now." Look for enormous Dollar Swap Facility usage for covering PIIGS bonds, in particular from Italy and Spain. The French Govt Bonds will be next under attack, like in January. Their yields remain low, but they are rising, and the Bund spread is widening. My guess is that the swap facility is already being tapped in heavy volume, on days the Euro currency rises especially.

COUP DE GRACE IN FRANCE

France introduced budget austerity, a surefire time bomb for the big banks that teeter in Paris. Nothing was learned from Greece, where recession is accelerating from the poison pills. The French banks bear the largest load for Italian Govt debt, more than double the German load and almost half the entire European load. France is tied with the lethal umbilical cord from Italy. The Dexia exposure to Greece and Italy has been detailed. German banks are not immune from big losses, nor immune from the financial crisis. Commerzbank suffered a big loss, typical of the German banking sector. With all the attention last month given to the big French banks, the weak links inside the German banking system are only recently coming to light. They are less but still sizeable. US banks are deeply exposed to European Govt debt default insurance. The risk is not offloaded, but rather shared and joined. The risks are rising astronomically for American banks, while large commitments are made, and partnerships are formed. The US press blithely reports a condition of near immunity of US banks from the financial crisis separated by an ocean. Great controversy lurks on insured debt.

If the regional recession does not pull France down, its banks will. They will succumb to horrendous Italian exposure. Notice the French banks have three times as much debt with Italian companies, versus Italian Govt debt. As the Italian Economy slides rapidly into recession, a considerable portion of the nearly $400 billion in total debt exposure will go rotten. One can see that Italy is Greece times seven. German banks are also on the hook for Italian sour grapes, but less than half the total.

The Spanish Govt Bond is the fuse that lights the Semex behind the French bank failures. Their bond yields surged past 6% as the contagion spreads. The bonds of Spain will endure similar pressures as Italy, deep scrutiny, and relegation to the Euro Central Bank outhouse, the major bagholder. The banking system in Spain operates on fairy tale reserves. The Spanish Economy is weighed down by 23% jobless rate. All PIIGS nations will be crushed by the crisis, no nation spared. Spain has officially entered the red zone as their sovereign bonds have been targeted. They have solved nothing, dealt with nothing, and downgraded no bank assets, preferring to live in a make believe world. While the Italian Govt Bond yield has relaxed toward levels below 7%, the Spanish Govt Bond yield has risen steadily since August from 5% to above 6% in an unrelenting march. It took five weeks to breach the 6% level, once the 5% level was breached. The Euro Central Bank is reported to be actively purchasing sovereign bond from both countries, to stem the crisis. Their efforts are futile, since private bank sales rise to supply the central bank at the window. After the official purchases, the private banks are highly reluctant to purchase anew, since that bond market has been badly tainted.

THE CARDIAC MEASURES

The Italian & Spanish Bovt Bonds are in big trouble, but the sleepy story is how France will soon join the PIIGS as the leader in the toxic sloppy pen where monetary paper feces spews openly. Some heavy damage is being quietly done on French bonds, where the banks hold much of their own national debt and the toxic Italian debt. Some claim it is game over with Italy on the ropes. My view is that the game is almost over, as the Italian debacle has spread quickly to Spain. But the main event in the recognized implosion is the sudden failure of all three of France's big banks. When Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole all go bust in a sudden burst wave of insolvency, illiquidity, and recorded losses to their artificially lifted balance sheets, the game is truly over. Then and only then, the great reconstruction of the European banking system will begin, complete with $3 trillion in freshly printed money. The Gold market comprehends this fact, and anticipates it fully, with patience. The MF Global corrupted chaos has put a new log in the golden road.

REDEFINED DEBT DEFAULT

The bank leaders have attempted to redefine debt default, as part of the bailout fund negotiations. This is the latest deeply corrupt practice, with some objection showed by the major debt rating agencies. Any loss of original debt security terms is a default, whether voluntary or blessed by the elite cartel. Expect court action and lawsuits in response. Another angle is being covered, whereby redenomination of debt in another currency is also declared not a default event. Great lengths are being taken, for a simple reason. A string of Credit Default Swap claims on debt default would expose the entire market as corrupted and under-funded by a wide margin to honor claims. With defaults, all the big banks would die in a flash. This is huge issue not addressed that invalidates an entire shadow-filled market. If sovereign bonds cannot be hedged effectively and predictably, the bond yields will rise fast from lack of demand. Watch out below for Italy. European banks will suffer losses without buffers that were expected to serve as hedges.

FRAUD OR JPMORGAN RUPTURE ???

Coverage to the MF Global fraud, theft, and violation of the financial markets is full of intrigue and bold strokes. A sacred pledge has been broken against segregated accounts and their partitioned sanctity. Witness the second stage of the grand American fraud exposure. The first stage was the subprime mortgage fraud, with Lehman Brothers kill, JPMorgan assert grab and reload, followed by the TARP Fund dispersal, and the mortgage contract forgeries. The MF Global theft exposes the lack of integrity in the financial futures markets, and one step closer for the death of JPMorgan, which is plugging holes rather than permitting a COMEX default. Over a thousand gold contracts will not be delivered, a breach. Over ten thousand silver contracts will not be delivered, a breach. The final stage could feature a bank holiday and background heist of personal accounts. Some thought such forecasted warnings to be wild and reckless, but look at the pilfered futures cash accounts. Precedent has been set, warning given. Nothing is safe in the American system. Veteran traders should have known better, like Gerald Celente, whose accounts are locked up, cash and all. What a travesty and blight on the US system! Time is slim to remove money from the US system, whose banner is fraud.

MF Global is a more visible and flagrant breach and desecration than the Madoff Fund fraud and theft. The total missing Madoff funds was reported to be $50 billion, when the actual total was closer to $150 billion. The MF Global missing funds are reported to be $650 million, when in reality the total is closer to $2 to $3 billion. MF Global has located $658.8 million in customer funds in a custodial account at JPMorgan Chase, which contained a total of $2.2 billion as of October 31st, including both the MFG money and customer funds, pure commingling of funds. This is a smoking gun certain to go unpunished. My belief is that JPMorgan stole the easily accessible funds placed too close to the action. Harbor doubts that CEO John Corzine will be indicted or serve prison time. The FBI is on the case. Their investigation will most likely be as effective as with Madoff, and recall they protected Goldman Sachs three years ago when a Russian man snatched the Unix software used by GSax for insider trading. It viewed incoming orders on the NYSE microseconds before the orders were executed. The FBI arrested the man, the illegal trading trail went cold, and the venerable firm continued doing God's work. In my view, the MF Global case will render irreparable harm to the US financial system on the commodity side. Countless professional traders and their firms recognize the threat to segregated accounts and their sanctity. Trust is gone, and so is their money. No new money will enter those tables.

Safeguards did not merely fail, they were abused once more in a long list of fraud events. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has failed on the job for the public, while doing an excellent job for the syndicate in power led by JPM and GSax. The next sham charade will be the big US banks serving on the creditor committees to oversee dispersal of funds that they were not able to steal already. JPMorgan is the agent for a $1.2 billion syndicated line of credit to MFG. It was named to the committee despite also having a $300 million secured loan against the MFG brokerage unit, a position pitted against other unsecured creditors in an obvious conflict of interest. JPMorgan slapped a lien on MF Global assets in an audacious maneuver. A formal dance is in progress, where the public is amateur. Lack of cooperation has been given by MF Global so far. Witness a possible hidden derivatives meltdown, as the European implosion has a conduit to the United States. With inter-bank lending so scarce, many Wall Street banks extended heavy loans to the distressed European banks in the last couple months. The story is not told that way, only as a large financial firm failure run by an ex-Senator and ex-Governor, a fallen pillar in the financial crisis. What has happened could be a critical step toward the ruin of the COMEX itself, and its transition into a Cash & Carry operation for precious metals. The reins holding back Gold are slowly vanishing or being discarded.