Bullion Banks “Selling Gold They Don’t Possess”

Huge paper gold sales are driving the gold price down every time it looks like stabilising, but as new physical gold supply moves East, this will surely lead to a massive short squeeze.

The statement in the title relates to a frustrated comment in a recent King World News interview with John Hathaway, a renowned gold stocks analyst who manages the well-respected Tocqueville Gold Fund in the USA.  Now, this factoid will not be news to regular readers of Mineweb,  or to any avid follower of the gold market, and is perhaps indicative of the way virtually all markets are manipulated by the world’s financial elite. 

In context, Hathaway’s statement in commenting on yet another gold price take-down was as follows: “These guys don’t even have to borrow the gold to sell it.  It’s probably a couple of bullion banks, and they use their balance sheets to justify the leverage of selling gold they don’t possess.  In some ways this is just a travesty.  We have entities moving this major market and making leveraged bets, but they do it without having to take physical possession and short the way you would do it on a normal exchange.

So they just wreak havoc in the gold market and damage investor psychology, but it will come to an end.  This is a continuing story that has to be watched.  Aside from the macro issues that surround gold, I think the chain of custody, the paper trail between derivative paper instruments and the real metal, is of great interest to me”  The full interview may be accessed by clicking here.

Now what is perhaps unspecified is why?  GATA will tell you it’s all part of a global effort, orchestrated by Central Banks, to control (suppress) the gold price.  They probably have a point.  The same argument could be put as that it is more a universal effort to shore up the U.S. dollar as the collapse of the greenback would throw global trade into disarray.  Gold is seen as the bellwether of dollar strength or otherwise.  But this is effectively the same argument as that of gold price suppression from a slightly different perspective.

But, in terms of gold, the dollar has been deteriorating dramatically over the years anyway.  The dollar’s only saving grace is that virtually every other currency against which it is measured has been deteriorating in purchasing power at an equal, or even greater, rate, giving a hugely misleading impression of the dollar’s own intrinsic strength.

Or it could just be that some the biggest investment banks and financial institutions have come to realise that gold is nowadays such a small part of the global investment scene that it can be manipulated for their own benefit with total impunity, regardless of the effect it can have on the individual gold investor or fund which looks on gold as a portfolio diversifier.

Or it could well be (probably is) a combination of both.  The financial elite can thus make obscene amounts of money, while the governments and central banks tacitly collude in turning a blind eye to what might be considered criminal activity in other markets, as it suits their own overall agendas for gold to be kept under control.  Consequently the regulators set up to control this kind of activity take little or no interest in investigating the very strange paper precious metals sales, which have been bearing no relation at all to the physical metal supply and demand situation.

We see and hear major investment banks’ analytical departments talking down gold in the most vehement terms, which because of their status in financial circles leads to massive sales of physical metal from weak holders, aggravated by computer stop loss selling, thus driving the price down dramatically, and then of the same banks climbing back into the market to buy up bullion at far lower prices ahead of a short term recovery.  Then rest for a few days, weeks or months and repeat the whole procedure all over again just as the metals seem to be starting to stabilise.  This seems to be happening with increasing frequency.  What a perfect way to make ridiculous amounts of money for those who have the financial strength to take advantage.

Meanwhile, there are the gold believers on the sidelines who may also have virtually unlimited pockets – the Chinese in particular – who must be feeling  every day is Christmas as they rake in physical gold at depressed prices, convinced that at some day in the future, by when they will have completely cornered the physical new gold market, the yellow metal’s price will soar, while Western paper gold will become worthless with no physical metal to back it.  As far as gold, and almost any other trade goes, the East looks to the long term, the West tends to look to tomorrow!

And as for the East cornering the market in physical gold, they are getting awfully close to doing this already.  Growing Chinese gold consumption is likely to account for close on 60% of new global gold production this year – and that is on the basis of already pretty well known figures – net Chinese gold imports through Hong Kong plus the country’s own domestic production, are together likely to reach well over 1,500 tonnes in calendar 2013.  If, as many surmise, China imports gold also through other ports of entry, which it does not disclose, then this percentage could be higher still.

Add into this India’s gold imports which, despite government attempts to control them, some estimate to also be close on reaching 1,000 tonnes this year (particularly if smuggled gold is included), then these two countries alone will together  account for nearly all the world’s 2013 newly mined gold supply.  And Chinese buying has been growing year on year. Meanwhile a number of other nations, mostly in Asia and the former Soviet union have also been consuming more gold so far in 2013, although none on quite the scale of China and India.

This suggests a run on physical gold may well be upon us soon.  So far this has been prevented by sales out of the big gold ETFs, and the rundown in COMEX inventories, diminishing scrap sales, plus the supply of any newly mined gold which is not already going directly into Eastern, Middle Eastern and FSU hands. 

Some think Central Bank gold may also be entering the market.  This is most likely to be leased gold and thus due to be returned, so it stays in their books.  But as physical gold goes into shorter and shorter supply, this may become increasingly difficult for those who have leased it to repay in kind.  Yet another indicator of a likely short squeeze ahead.  

Bullion Trader Maguire Describes Run on the London Gold Banks (on Max Keiser TV)

Interviewed yesterday by Max Keiser on the "Keiser Report" on the Russia TV television network, London bullion trader and silver market rigging whistleblower Andrew Maguire said there is a run on the London bullion banks.

The Federal Reserve's big dumping of paper gold in April bought a little time for the banks but only increased the offtake of real metal from the grossly overleveraged fractional-reserve gold banking system, that the Bank of England is advancing metal into the London market every day to avert defaults.

The United Kingdom's gold sales begun in 1999 were undertaken to rescue gold short Goldman Sachs, and that the Western gold banking system is now in the same short squeeze that threatened it 14 years ago. Yesterday's "Keiser Report" is posted at YouTube and the interview with Maguire is about 13 minutes long and begins at the 13-minute mark here:




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Peter Schiff on Bullion Banks, The Hidden Trove of QE Money

Would you trust the New York Fed with 7,000 tons of the yellow metal?  Perianne talks to Peter Schiff about what central banks are doing with gold.

Then, Prime Interest Producer Justine Underhill explains what exactly the Fed has been doing vis-a-vis QE.

China To Buy $344 Billion Worth of Gold?

As economic conditions in the U.S. and the global economy deteriorate, and as central banks around the world print more money in their misguided attempts to spur growth, more and more analysts are saying that gold bullion’s best days are behind it.

Their reasoning: the economy is improving, the Fed will cut back on its monetary stimulus, the worst is behind us, and there’s no more crisis, so there’s no more reason for gold to rise—this is the exact opposite of what I’m saying!

The gold bears fail to realize there are fundamental forces at play behind the gold bullion bull market.
Central banks around the world are looking at gold bullion as an alternative to the currencies they hold in their reserves. It is well documented in these pages how major central banks like the ones from Russia and Turkey continue to buy gold bullion.

Then there is the central bank of China. Its official reserve reached a value of $3.44 trillion in the first quarter of 2013—similar to the size of Germany’s economy. China increased its reserve by $128 billion in the first quarter, making it the biggest increase in reserve since the second quarter of 2011. (Source:Financial Times, April 11, 2013.) My bet is that most of that reserve is in U.S. dollars, which China would desperately like to get rid of.

With that said, China doesn’t have as much gold bullion to back its reserves as countries like the U.S., Germany, and France have. As a matter of fact, the Chinese central bank only holds 1.6% of its reserves in gold bullion, compared to 75.6% for the U.S. and 72.0% for Germany. (Source: World Gold Council, May 2013.)

To bring its total gold bullion holdings to 10% of its reserves, the central bank of China would need to allocate about $344 billion of its reserves to buy gold bullion.

Add strong demand from countries like India to the fact that China needs to increase its gold reserves, and the fundamental demand behind gold bullion is clear. According to the World Gold Council’s estimates, demand for gold bullion in India is expected to jump 150% by the end of June as compared to last year. (Source: Wall Street Journal, June 3, 2013.)

The amount of gold bullion and silver imported in India reached $7.5 billion in April—more than double the amount from a year earlier. The Indian government has increased its import tax from two percent to six percent in a matter of just 1.5 years to curb demand. (Source: Wall Street Journal, May 20, 2013.)

The demand for gold bullion is as strong as ever.

What He Said:

“Home-building in the U.S. will enter a quasi depression state in 2008 and the construction industry will make 2008 a record year for pink slips. I predict a major homebuilder will go bankrupt in 2008.” Michael Lombardi in Profit Confidential, January 10, 2008. WCI Communities, the largest U.S. luxury home builder, filed for Chapter 11 protection on August 4, 2008.

Cyprus Crisis Boosting Unique Currency, the Bitcoin

Currency markets are keeping close track of Cyprus' banking crisis and are braced for possible repercussions, but one currency has thrived in the chaos and zoomed in value -- Bitcoins. A Bitcoin is a digital currency that is traded electronically and does not need government backing. Despite its name, there is no coin to put in your pocket.

 Two weeks ago, one Bitcoin was worth $40, then a record high. Today, it's worth $72, largely because of "incremental interest" from euro and Russian ruble holders who are terrified by the situation in Cyprus, said Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, a financial technology company in Manhattan.

"The best-performing currency year-to-date has no home country, no central banker and no physical scrip," Colas said. The Bitcoin is "clearly having a breakthrough moment here, and a deeply surprising one given its novelty and nascent infrastructure," he said. The Bitcoin reportedly was invented by a man who called himself Satoshi Nakamoto, and who may -- or may not -- have been a 23-year-old graduate student in cryptography at Trinity College in Dublin. He wanted people to be able to exchange money electronically and securely without a third party's involvement.

Although there are no physical coins, Walmart sells Bitcoin gift cards, and as Salon noted, WordPress and Reddit take payments in Bitcoin. Charlie Shrem, the CEO of BitInstant, a payment processor for Bitcoin exchanges and other merchants, thinks the Bitcoin is the wave of the future. "Let's say you have someone in Cyprus who badly needs money," Shrem said. "How are you going to get that person money? There's not enough cash going around. Bitcoin can and will be used as a barter, or maybe a collateral tool." He believes that people will first use Bitcoin "for its better uses" like remittance, wire transfers, donations and micropayments, before it reaches a mainstream audience.

"Imagine being able to pay five cents to read an article online instead of these ridiculous pay walls that require expensive monthly subscriptions," he said. "People will start reading the news again. Right now, you can't do that. Try sending five cents over the Internet." But Diana Furchtgott-Roth, the former chief economist for the U.S. Department of Labor and a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, was unimpressed. "It's a gimmick," she said.

"The Bitcoin would never work in Cyprus because Cyprus is full of insolvent loans. Putting in different currency is not going to help. They would ideally have their own currency. Whether it's digital or dollars, they need to separate from the euro and put in economic currency that will attract more investment." Colas was also hesitant about the Bitcoin's future. "Whether it succeeds or fails is hard to predict," Colas said. "We're clearly in uncharted waters. But one thing is clear: Bitcoin is one more lens with which to assess the ongoing European financial crisis."

Europe Does It Again: Cyprus Depositor Haircut "Bailout" Turns Into Saver "Panic", Frozen Assets, Bank Runs, Broken ATMs

Late last night, after markets closed for the weekend, following an extended discussion the European finance ministers announced their "bailout" solution for Russian oligarch depositor-haven Cyprus: a €13 billion bailout (Europe's fifth) with a huge twist: the implementation of what has been the biggest taboo in European bailouts to date - the  impairment of depositors, and a fresh, full blown escalation in the status quo's war against savers everywhere.

Specifically, Cyprus will impose a levy of 6.75% on deposits of less than €100,000 - the ceiling for European Union account insurance, which is now effectively gone following this case study - and 9.9% above that. The measures will raise €5.8 billion, Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who leads the group of euro-area ministers, said.

But it doesn't stop there: a partial "bail-in" of junior bondholders is also possible, as for the first time ever the entire liability structure of a European bank - even if it is a Cypriot bank - is open season for impairments. The logical question: why here, and why now? And what happens when the Cypriot bank run that has taken the country by storm this morning spreads everywhere else, now that the scab over Europe's biggest festering wound is torn throughout the periphery as all the other PIIGS realize they too are expendable on the altar of mollifying voters and investors in the other countries that make up Europe's disunion.

Bloomberg's take on the sacrifice of Cyprus' savers:

Officials have struggled to find an agreement that would rescue Cyprus, which accounts for just half of a percent of the euro region’s economy, without unsettling investors in larger countries and sparking a new round of market contagion. Policy makers began meeting at 5 p.m. yesterday in a hastily convened gathering, seeking to overcome differences on bondholder losses while financial markets were closed.

“Further measures concern the increase of the withholding tax on capital income, a restructuring and recapitalisation of banks, an increase of the statutory corporate income tax rate and a bail-in of junior bondholders,” according to a communique released by ministers after the talks. It didn’t specify whether bank or sovereign bond holders could be affected.

The European Central Bank will use its existing facilities to make funds available to Cypriot banks as needed to counter potential bank runs. Depositors will receive bank equity as compensation.

Finance Minister Michael Sarris said the plan was the “least onerous” of the options Cyprus faced to stay afloat.

“It’s not a pleasant outcome, especially of course for the people involved,” said Sarris. The Cypriot parliament will convene tomorrow to vote on legislation needed for the bailout.

Needless to say, the locals are delighted:

In the coastal town of Larnaca, where irate depositors queued early to withdraw money from cash machines, co-op credit societies that are normally open on Saturdays stayed closed.

"I'm extremely angry. I worked years and years to get it together and now I am losing it on the say-so of the Dutch and the Germans," said British-Cypriot Andy Georgiou, 54, who returned to Cyprus in mid-2012 with his savings.

"They call Sicily the island of the mafia. It's not Sicily, it's Cyprus. This is theft, pure and simple," said a pensioner.

For the real response, look to Russia:

The island's bailout had repeatedly been delayed amid concerns from other EU states that its close business relations with Russia, and a banking system flush with Russian cash, made it a conduit for money-laundering.

"My understanding is that the Russian government is ready to make a contribution with an extension of the loan and a reduction of the interest rate," said the EU's top economic official, Olli Rehn.

Almost half of [Cyprus'] depositors are believed to be non-resident Russians, but most of those queuing on Saturday at automatic teller machines to pull out cash appeared to be Cypriots.

While "saving", pardon the pun, yet another insolvent country merely has the intent of keeping it in the Eurozone, and thus preserving Europe's doomed monetary block and bank equity for a little longer, this idiotic plan will achieve two things: i) infuriate not just Russians but very wealthy, and very trigger-happy Russians. 

The revenge of Gazpromia will be short and swift, and we certainly would not want to be Europeans next winter when the average heating level of Western European will depend on the whims of Russian natural gas pipeline traffic; ii) start a wave of bank runs first in Cyprus and soon everywhere else that has the potential of being the next Cyrpus.

Sure enough, here come the bank runs:

While the tax on deposits will hurt wealthy Russians with money in Cypriot banks, it will also sting ordinary citizens. Some ATMs in the country have run out of cash, Erotokritos Chlorakiotis, general manager of the Cooperative Central Bank, told state-run CYBC.

Forzen assets and "national bank holidays" are baaaaack:

Funds to pay the levy were frozen in accounts immediately, ECB Executive Board Member Joerg Asmussen said. The levy will be assessed before Cypriot banks reopen on March 19 after a March 18 national holiday. Sarris said electronic transfers will also be limited until then.

Europe's response: this is a unique situation. Just like the Greek bailout was unique;  just like the Irish and Portuguese bailouts were unique;  just like the bailout of Spanish banks was unique.

“As it is a contribution to the financial stability of Cyprus, it seems just to ask a contribution of all deposit holders,” Dijsselbloem said, noting the country’s financial industry was five times the size of its economy. The plan includes “unique measures” that address the “exceptional nature” of Cyprus and show “inflexible commitment to financial stability and the integrity of the euro area.”

Curiously, even everyone's favorite liar, former Eurogroup president, Jean-Claude Juncker, has a warning that this "bailout" is the worst thing Europe could have done:

Skeptics including Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker had said that imposing investor losses in Cyprus risked reigniting the financial crisis that has so far pushed five of the euro zone’s 17 members to seek aid. Last year, the euro area took what officials called a unique step to ask Greek bondholders to absorb losses.

But fear not: Europe has promised this absolute resolution taboo won't repeat itself...

When asked if a deposit assessment could be ruled out for future rescues, Rehn said in an interview: “It can and there is no concrete case where it should be considered.”

... Until it does repeat itself of course - after all the fundamental problem for Europe has never been resolved: the continent is still broke, and it still is running out of good, unencumbered assets (which as being repledged by the banking oligarchy) with every passing day.

Now the only thing unknown is Russia's response:

Corporate tax rates in Cyprus will rise to 12.5 percent to 10 percent as part of the deal, Dijsselbloem said. Rehn told reporters that Russia, whose banks have loaned as much as $40 billion to Cypriot companies of Russian origin, would ease terms on its existing loans to Cyprus as the rescue unfolds. Cyprus’s finance minister is scheduled to fly to Moscow on March 20.

What is known, however is that Cypriots have taken the news in stride.... and to their local ATM machine, which sadly is showing the following message: "Your transaction has been cancelled due to a technical issue. This ATM cannot complete withdrawals at this time" (courtesy of Yannis Mouzakis).