The Top 3 Rules to Understand About Gold & Silver Price Behavior

Over the past 10+ years of this gold and silver bull, I’ve seen gold and silver “newbies” repeatedly make the same mistakes. So I’ve decided to write this short article to help people more clearly understand gold and silver price behavior. There are 3 solid rules to follow and understand when buying gold and silver bullion and or mining stocks. Because of the lack of understanding of these rules, many investors unfortunately unload gold and silver assets at the exact wrong time, at the bottom of long corrections and right at the beginning of huge new legs higher. Back in mid-May, when I wrote that it was a very low-risk, high-reward point to buy gold and silver assets, virtually no one outside of the very small circle of seasoned gold and silver investors were interested. Now that gold and silver have risen considerably since that point and time, there is more interest than just a few weeks ago, but again, some newbies will make the mistake of buying into gold and silver now, and on any slight pull back, listen to the doubts disseminated by the mainstream media, and panic sell again.

I previously stated on August 16, 2012, the following: “The one thing I can guarantee, however, is that when gold and silver finally make new highs, and they will, some of the ferocious moves higher are absolutely going to stun a lot of people.” And I still stand by this statement. In retrospect, I don’t consider the recent moves in gold and silver to be part of the “ferocious moves higher”. That hasn’t happened yet and we’re still a bit away from the manifestation of the scenario that will trigger these moves. Still, some of the moves higher in gold and silver that will happen over the next 1-2 years will be so rapid and shocking that to most people, they will seem impossible given the psychological damage done by the past 18-month gold & silver correction and consolidation period. And to those that pay too much attention to the mainstream financial press and not enough to the realities of the physical, not paper, gold and silver markets, these violent moves higher will be likewise shocking.

Because gold and silver have been so suppressed for an extended period of time the consequent defensive actions of exiting PM mining stocks and re-purchasing them at solid re-entry points has left many gold and silver investors weary and with a negative outlook ahead. Though patience is a virtue when holding and stacking gold and silver assets, this virtue is much more easily vowed than practiced, especially during volatile periods of price behavior upward and downward during an extended consolidation phase. 

However, those that are able to see through the volatility games of banksters will see something entirely different – a solid base for gold and silver’s next move higher to escape the banking cartel’s price suppression schemes. Thus, even though it is likely for gold and silver assets to take a breather this week and for a pull back in prices to happen before the upward trek continues, whether gold and silver are rising or falling, every gold and silver investor needs to understand the top 3 rules when holding gold and silver assets. So here they are:

(1) Volatility Does Not Equal Risk.
Far from it. In fact most volatility in gold and silver is deliberately manufactured by the banking cartel, and is manufactured in fake paper derivative markets in which prices are set with absolutely zero regard for the actual physical supply and physical demand determinants of these two precious metals. Furthermore, since banker cartel manipulation of paper gold and silver derivatives plays such a big role in price volatility, moves in gold and silver are often just as violent to the upside as they are to the downside after long periods of consolidation, as violent moves higher are often caused by short-covering of panicked hedge funds and banking cartel members that are forced to unwind shorts when the momentum to the upside becomes too great for them to suppress. 

Furthermore, after brief periods of very quick rises, another short-term correction triggered by day traders taking profits and/or desperate banking cartel members actions in paper markets does not mean the uptrend has reversed back downward again…which bring us to Rule #2.

(2) Lack of Patience is the Greatest Enemy to Buyers of Gold, Silver and PM Mining Shares.

With physical gold and physical silver, bankers deliberately create massive volatility in paper prices at times to discourage the uninitiated from buying physical and to try to goad those already in to mistakenly sell. With PM mining shares, the greatest mistake investors make with this asset class is to let the bankster created artificial volatility in mining shares discourage them into selling out of all of their shares right before the next great leg higher. While it is true that the vast majority of gold and silver mining shares in the junior resource sector are junk and inflated pipe dreams, even cashed-up, solid junior mining companies will be taken down in price during bankster raids on paper gold and paper silver and thus, patience with junior mining companies is essential to coming out on top.

One of the top performing gold stocks lost more than 50% of its value a few years before the onset of the Great Depression before going on a spectacular +1,258% run higher that ended in1939. Those that were impatient because they were unable to see the big picture of the importance of gold during periods of severe economic instability sold out when this stock corrected sharply, locked in losses, and received none of the spectacular gains. Many today will repeat this same exact mistake.

(3) Ignore the White Noise and Disinformation Anti-Gold/Anti-Silver Campaigns of the Commercial Banking Industry.

Clients that allocate money to physical gold and physical silver purchases or PM mining share purchases translates into lost revenues for fee-based managed money commercial banking and brokerage firms because this normally translates into money that leaves these firms and never comes back. Thus, the vast majority of commercial banking/brokerage firm employees have great incentive to prevent their clients from purchasing any gold and silver assets of any nature, including even robust PM mining stocks.

Thus, when the most robust PM mining shares are at super undervalued valuations and represent a low-risk, high-reward set-up, commercial banking/brokerage firm employees are likely to tell you there is ZERO opportunity in PM mining shares. However, when great runs higher in gold and silver assets occur, uninformed commercial banking employees are likely to inform you of this situation and goad you into purchases right before the next steep correction, as was the case when silver hit $50 an ounce last year. A sharp, rapid and significant correction in the first month of buying gold and silver is a lesson likely to keep many “newbies” from ever returning to the gold and silver markets in the future.

Stay Long in Gold, Silver: Karvy Commodities

 Gold: Gold futures prices are continuing last week’s momentum at the early Globex by gaining $5 from previous closing. The Asian equities are trading mostly at a weaker note after Chinese industrial profit fell by the most this year. But again the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao hinted for further accommodation as the economy’s weakness is deepening.

Thus, hopes of easing from the global central banks are likely to keep gold buoyed for the day. Gold investment holdings rose 0.92% to 1286.50 tons last week, highest since March this year, would have also supported the metal to grow. From the economic data front, the German IFO numbers are likely to be weak while the US Dallas Fed manufacturing is expected to revive a bit but may still remain on a negative territory.

This is although likely to keep the Euro under strain, market may closely watch the week end’s Jackson Hole Symposium, which may provide a clue on how the global central banks see economy and what are the further accommodations it can provide. The Fed and ECB President’s speech may guide market movements and the event may turn out to be the most important of the week as both President Bernanke and Draghi are going to meet. Said above, we could expect gold to stay strong for the day and hence we recommend staying long for the metal from lower level.

Silver: Today morning silver future is seen on a continued momentum by gaining near 0.35% at the Globex despite the Chinese industrial profits fell the most in this year. However, prices would have been supported as the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao hinted for further accommodation as the economy’s weakness is deepening.

Thus, hopes of easing from the global central banks are likely to keep silver buoyed for the day. Although the Asian equities dropped after the Chinese data released, the news of accommodation may help prices to remain strong. Reports from the US Dallas Fed may show a slight improvement in manufacturing in evening which may support silver. Nevertheless, weak IFO numbers from Germany may put slight pressure on the metal.

Besides, this week is likely to be dominated by anticipation of Jackson Hole Symposium, which may provide a clue on how the global central banks see economy and what are the further accommodations it can provide. Therefore, prices are likely to remain buoyed. Said so, we recommend staying long for the metal from lower levels.

Bill Murphy- JP Morgan Is FINISHED! Silver Scam to Rival Libor

Bill Murphy discusses how JP Morgan is in trouble and how gold and silver are likely to go up as he predicted Do you agree with Bill Murphy that JP Morgan Is finished?

The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Silver Investigation

There has been an explosion of interest and commentary these past few days as a result of a front page story in Monday’s edition of the influential Financial Times (of London). The story stated that the CFTC was set to drop its four year investigation into alleged silver price manipulation due to insufficient evidence to bring charges, according to three unnamed sources. 

I went to sleep Sunday evening when the story first appeared prepared to wake up to similar and confirming stories in other publications. Instead, there were no other stories confirming the case was set to be dropped; only strong statements that the FT was story was “premature” and “inaccurate in many respects” by a named source, Commissioner Bart Chilton of the agency.

 

The CFTC’s silver investigation is a hot button issue and the FT story, as well as Commissioner Chilton’s response to it, set off an outpouring of emotion and conjecture in the precious metals world. And for good reason, as this is an extremely important issue. There can be no greater concern than whether a market is manipulated in price. 

The issue of a silver manipulation is also a divisive matter, even within the CFTC itself; otherwise there likely wouldn’t have been leaks that the investigation was over and the immediate response of not so fast. As is usually the case with extremely divisive issues (like politics and elections), emotions take hold and the real issues can get distorted. 

Let me try to frame the picture in an unemotional manner. Admittedly, that’s no easy task since I was the prime initiator behind this silver investigation and the two prior CFTC silver investigations in 2004 and 2008. (Too bad there’s no Olympic event for initiating government investigations).

However, the truth is that four years ago I was not trying to get the Commission to investigate, as they had just completed a few months earlier, in May 2008, their second silver investigation in four years. By then, I knew where the Commission stood on whether silver was manipulated and it was pointless to ask them to investigate again. I had a different motive in mind when I urged readers to write to the CFTC about the now-infamous Bank Participation Report of August 2008.

That was the report that showed that one or two US banks held an obscenely large and concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures that amounted to 20% of world production and 30% of the entire COMEX silver market. No major market had ever been that concentrated. I knew that this short position was so concentrated that, in and of itself, it proved silver was manipulated because the price would be radically higher in its absence. That is always the litmus test for manipulation, namely, what would the price most likely be if a concentrated position did not exist? 

As a result of the August 2008 Bank Participation Report and subsequent CFTC correspondence to US lawmakers, I also learned at that time that JPMorgan was the big silver short, as I speculated on in this article. http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_comentary/09-02-08.html This is when and where the precious metals world came to learn that the big silver short was JPMorgan.

I asked readers to write to the CFTC not to investigate silver anew, but for the agency to simply explain how a big bank holding such a large percentage of the market would not be manipulation. This is a question that the Commission should have answered immediately since it was so basic to commodity law. The last thing I intended was for the agency to embark on a multi-year phony investigation as a delaying tactic for not being able to answer a basic regulatory question. 

Because the Commission could not explain the legitimacy of JPMorgan’s concentrated short position, they continued to drag out resolution by pretending to investigate. But four years is an extraordinarily long time for any government investigation, phony or otherwise, and it appears that the CFTC has to confront the issue soon; hence the FT article.

While the FT article was disappointing (at least it mentioned my name in a non-derogatory manner) and Chilton’s response was encouraging, the reality is that it is unlikely that the investigation will be resolved much differently than the version leaked to the paper. For one thing, nobody likes admitting they had royally screwed up and if the Commission were to bring manipulation charges now in silver, it would be admitting that it missed the wrongdoing for the previous two decades, despite continuous and documented warnings from 1986. How likely is that?

More importantly, were the agency to charge JPMorgan with manipulation of the silver price (as it should) that could set off a series of events that could easily grow out of control. One thing that makes the silver manipulation so potentially profound is that the core allegation is of a crime in progress. The CFTC has never busted up a manipulation that was in force; like most government agencies, it only reacts after the fact. Don’t take that solely as a complaint, but more as an observation that governments are more reactive than proactive. 

Because the silver manipulation is very much in force, were it to be terminated by CFTC actions against JPMorgan and/or others, it would be a “live” event for the first time. History shows that all manipulations end violently. In the case of silver, since it has been depressed in price by a downward manipulation, its termination would necessarily cause prices to explode higher. Any charge brought by the CFTC would send a clear signal to the world that silver had been depressed in price and was undervalued and, therefore, should be purchased. This would cause a flood of buying and discourage new selling, causing the price to truly explode, most likely in disorderly market conditions. Do you find it likely that the CFTC would wish to cause that disorderly pricing that could lead to further unsettled conditions in other markets?

If JPMorgan (and perhaps the CME Group) were found to be the main culprits in the silver manipulation and the CFTC brought charges against them, the repercussions to JPM and the CME could be a threat to them as going concerns. It was never a case that JPMorgan couldn’t financially afford to buy back its concentrated silver short position; it was always a case that should JPM ever move to buy back aggressively to the upside that would prove conclusively that it had been manipulating the price of silver all along. 

That would set JPMorgan (and the CME) up for a legal holocaust, both civil and criminal. There has been talk of a civil litigation nightmare for those banks deemed guilty in the developing Libor manipulation; but determining damages will be difficult because the Libor rates were allegedly manipulated both up and down, making the damages unclear and hard to prove. Were there to be findings of a downward manipulation in silver, those damaged, from investors to producing companies and countries could easily demonstrate the damage. Back in the Hunt Bros silver manipulation of 1980, one of the successful litigants was Minpeco, the government producer organization from Peru, who I remember collected more than $100 million. That would be chicken feed compared to the consequences of the much longer downward silver manipulation of today by JPMorgan. And this says nothing of potential criminal liability. 

JPMorgan is perhaps the most important and influential US bank and for the CFTC to move against them in a matter as important as basic market manipulation could lead to unintended consequences that could threaten the world’s financial system. Do you think the CFTC would dare challenge the supremacy of JPMorgan considering that potential financial fall-out? Besides, as I have written previously, JPMorgan is too big to sue, at least matched up against the CFTC. The matter of the bank manipulating any market is something that JPMorgan would defend against to the death, as for it to be found guilty could possibly end the bank in its current form.

JPMorgan would certainly spend $5 billion (only one quarter’s net profits) to fight any charges in connection with a silver manipulation and, at a minimum, delay a legal resolution for decades. On the other hand, the CFTC is struggling to fund the whole agency on $200 to $300 million annually. This is most likely the reason behind the leak to the FT about the silver investigation being dropped, namely, the CFTC is no match for JPMorgan and the agency knows it. This has nothing to do with law, or justice, or doing what is right; it is simply a case that the crooks at JPMorgan (and the CME) can bully anyone they chose, including the US Government. The most plausible alternative explanation, of course, is that the Treasury Dept ordered the CFTC to keep its hands off JPMorgan. Either way, it stinks.

The truth is that the silver investigation was a ruse from the start in that the CFTC could never have moved against JPMorgan or the CME in any circumstance. The proof of that is evident in the many other specific instances of price manipulation in silver that have occurred after the soon to be dropped investigation began. The most obvious instances were the two separate 30% and 35% price smashes in a matter of days that occurred in silver in 2011. There never were such blatant price declines in such a short time in any world commodity in history, to say nothing about there being no obvious supply/demand changes to account for the declines. 

In other words, the CFTC started their third silver investigation four years ago as a way of avoiding having to explain how JPMorgan could be allowed to hold a clearly manipulative concentrated short position and then ignored the two greatest manipulative price events in commodity market history while the phony silver investigation was under way. Think of how devious and dishonest the CFTC has been; it announces a formal silver investigation to avoid having to answer bedrock regulatory questions, then ignores the two most manipulative prices events in history claiming it can’t comment on them because there is an active investigation under way. If government officials could ever be horse-whipped for malfeasance and for failing to protect the public interest, surely the CFTC’s performance in silver would permit it. 

I realize that what I have written to this point paints a picture that is not optimistic for the resolution of the silver investigation that most would favor. I am sorry about that, but I try to be an analyst and not an entertainer. That said I’d like to spend some time explaining why the outcome of a dropped case may not matter much and that the net result is good for silver. 

More than anything, this FT leak was likely a trial balloon for the CFTC to gauge public reaction to it dropping the case. If so, the reaction couldn’t be clearer; even I was taken aback by the near universal condemnation of the agency for proposing to drop the case. I think what got to people the most was the suggestion that the agency would walk away without bothering to explain the concentration and the two historic price drops of 2011, to say nothing of the almost daily beatings in silver as a result of crooked High Frequency Trading. If anything, the FT article may have given legs to the silver manipulation allegations.

While it was a mainstream media publication that leaked the story, the silver manipulation is surely not a mainstream media issue. The silver story is an Internet and private publication issue that grew despite being ignored in the mainstream media. As such, any declaration that the matter is now closed will not close it anywhere outside the MSM, where it was never accepted to begin with. It’s not just that the silver manipulation was never accepted by the MSM, it was more a case of it never being allowed to be openly discussed. But legitimate questions of undue market concentration and historic and unjustified silver price movements are matters worthy of transparent examination that MSM censorship has been unable to stifle. 

Not only is the matter not going away, the leak to drop the case may bring greater attention to it. Such attention could prove to be the death knell for the silver manipulation, as the last thing the silver manipulators want or need is a fully transparent examination of the facts. One of my longest held beliefs has been that as time rolls on more would become aware of the real silver story and once they did, more investment demand in silver would result. That has occurred and any new attention brought to silver as a result of a dropped investigation will likely accelerate the process. The truly amazing thing is in how slowly the real silver story has spread in the ranks of super big investors. Aside from Eric Sprott, very large investors have overlooked the silver story completely. I am as certain as I can be that these very large investors just haven’t taken the time to look objectively at silver. I think it’s a case of silver being such a universally known item that most people assume they already know all the facts because they know what silver is. 

This includes very large investors who, in addition, may actually be turned off that so many smaller investors have invested in silver. It’s a common human failing to dismiss something because others thought to be less knowledgeable got there first. In the long run, however, very large investors are more concerned with superior returns, so the key is getting them to look at silver objectively. The dropping of the silver manipulation may be that key.

Perhaps the most amazing thing of all, at least to me, is the glaring fact that even after four years of non-stop public allegations about involvement in the silver manipulation, JPMorgan still remains the big short. It is hard for me to comprehend how such a large and powerful financial organization (as well as the CME) could silently tolerate the obvious reputational damage which is accruing. While JPMorgan’s short COMEX silver position is in the lower range of what it has been since the Bear Stearns takeover of March 2008, it remains shockingly large and concentrated. After last week’s big increase of 3000 contracts, JPM’s short position, at 18,000 contracts (90 million oz), is still more than three and a half times the proposed position limit in silver.

The most plausible explanation for why JPMorgan has not rid itself completely of this manipulative short position is because it can’t do so easily. This is particularly true if JPMorgan tried to buy back its silver short position on rising prices. It would be a shock to the silver market system if the biggest short seller of last resort suddenly turned buyer. In essence, this is the root problem with concentrated positions in general – they cannot be unwound without market upheaval. 

For JPMorgan to turn to the silver buy side would beg the question – who would sell to them and at what price? The problem with the sharply higher silver prices that JPMorgan would cause if it turned silver buyer is that it would confirm that the bank was, in fact, manipulating the price of silver all along. To my mind, this means JPMorgan is trapped. They can’t run and they can’t hide. This is precisely the conclusion that any large investor would reach if that investor took the time to study silver closely. I can’t see how that won’t happen in time and a more bullish set up is hard to imagine.

Of course, I would be the happiest guy in the world to be proven wrong about what the CFTC will do with the ongoing silver investigation. But the potential of the likely greater exposure of the real issues in silver that a dropped investigation would bring is plenty good. With silver, it’s always been about getting people to learn the real facts.

Ted Butler

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Four-Year Silver Probe Set To Be Dropped

A four-year investigation into the possible manipulation of the the silver market looks increasingly likely to be dropped after US regulators failed to find enough evidence to support a legal case, according to three people familiar with the situation.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission first announced that it was investigating “complaints of misconduct in the silver market” in September 2008, following a barrage of allegations of manipulation from a group of precious metals investors.
In 2010, Bart Chilton, a CFTC commissioner, said that he believed there had been “fraudulent efforts” to “deviously control” the silver price.

But after taking advice from two external consultancies, the first of which found irregularities on certain trading dates that it believed deserved more analysis, CFTC staff do not have sufficient evidence to bring a case, according to the people familiar with the situation.

The agency’s five commissioners have not yet formally determined the outcome of the investigation, leaving the possibility that staff could be instructed to dig deeper. A CFTC spokesman said: “The investigation has not reached its conclusion”. He declined further comment.

Ending the probe would infuriate some US silver investors, who claim that a group of large investment banks – in particular, JPMorgan – has conspired to drive the price of silver lower.
“I’m sure it will be met with some concern from a certain group of aggressive silver speculators,” said one person familiar with the investigation.

In a recent blog post, Ted Butler, a newsletter publisher and unofficial champion for the silver investors, accused the CFTC of being “negligent in failing to terminate the obvious manipulation ongoing in silver”.

The CFTC has analysed over 100,000 documents and interviewed dozens of witnesses since it began investigating the market in 2008, it said last year. The people familiar with the situation said the evidence included records from JPMorgan.

The conclusion of the investigation will come as a relief to JPMorgan. Although no company or individual was named in the CFTC investigation, the Wall Street bank has suffered a torrent of allegations from silver investors on the blogosphere.

One campaign exhorted sympathetic readers to “crash JPMorgan” by buying silver – based on the assumption, which JPMorgan has repeatedly denied, that the US bank has a large bet on lower silver prices.

In addition, a class-action lawsuit has been filed against JPMorgan. Lawyers for the bank have asked a judge to dismiss it, arguing that plaintiffs “fail to identify a single trade” showing manipulation.
Blythe Masters, head of commodities at JPMorgan, in an April interview with CNBC conceded that there had been “a tremendous amount of speculation, particularly in the blogosphere, about this topic”, but maintained that the bank had no large bets on silver prices.

“We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline,” she said. JPMorgan declined to comment on the CFTC investigation.

Previous CFTC silver inquiries in 2004 and 2008 found no evidence of wrongdoing.

Bron Suchecki of the Perth Mint – Expect Precious Metals Shortages During The Next Crisis

Bron Suchecki, who’s in charge of strategy for the famed Perth Mint, is warning all precious metals investors that the next crisis will lead to heightened precious metals demand so expect shortages and mint rationing.

This is exactly what happened in 2008, and the next crisis could very well be worse. Interestingly, the shortages emerged not from a shortage of raw materials, but due to a lack of fabrication capacity.

The blanks or planchets that are required to stamp coins are in limited supply. There aren’t a lot of producers around the world, and they have been knwon to invest large amounts of capital towards ramping up production. This is due to the market’s unpredicatable demand curve and the high costs of expansion.

The result is that the distribution system works great in times of regular demand, but it quickly breaks down when demand spikes. Remember, we told you it was coming.


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Allocated Bullion Storage: Do You Really Own the Bullion?

Worldwide economic uncertainty has created a growing interest in precious metals as a way to preserve wealth. Today, global risks for investors include currency devaluation, sovereign debt defaults, bond market collapses and stock market losses, all underpinned by ever-increasing government debt.

For protection from impending economic Armageddon, investors are turning in increasing numbers to the traditional safe haven of precious metals. Unfortunately, many today don't know how to purchase or store bullion, and consequently may find themselves as vulnerable to financial collapse as those who didn't purchase any bullion at all.

This increased interest in precious metals as portfolio insurance has spawned a new generation of precious metals-based financial products, many of which are paper proxies or derivatives of bullion. There are even unregulated markets for the exchange of "digital gold."

A clear case for transparency

In 2007, former Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge gave a speech entitled "A Clear Case for Transparency" to the Canada-UK Chamber of Commerce. "...[I]investors will have to take on more responsibility for diligent research," he said, "so that they can better understand the nature of their investments and demand greater transparency where it is now lacking ... they must do their own homework and make a concerted effort to understand what they are buying."

Most investors do not read the fine print of the agreements they sign with respect to financial investments; they make assumptions, but do not definitively know if they own actual bullion. Some are attracted to certain bullion investments because of low premiums and low storage fees, but when was the last time Wall Street and the major banks gave the investing public a deal?

Investors who don't do their homework may be dismayed to find that their safe haven asset has proved to be anything but. These same people perform rigorous due diligence when purchasing a home, car or boat, demanding that they have clear legal title to the asset in question. The same attention to detail must be paid when investing in bullion.

The most important concept to understand is that a financial institution CAN sell an investor's bullion if the agreement states that it can. Banks are not raiding allocated accounts; rather, they are following the provisions of the contract, in which the bullion is not allocated despite an investor's assumptions.

There does appear to be cause for concern regarding the transparency of bullion products. As reported by the economic news website ZeroHedge, financial services giant Morgan Stanley paid out $4.4 million in June 2007 to settle a class action lawsuit brought by clients after the firm charged them to "buy and store" precious metals, but did neither .

Similarly, a class action lawsuit filed in New York's federal court accuses UBS Financial Services of misleading silver investors, and charging them storage fees for metals that were never purchased, let alone allocated or stored for them.

A larger problem has been brewing for several years now, that of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These are generally viewed as a low-cost panacea that replaces almost any investment strategy, including the purchase of gold bullion, and they are giving investors a false sense of security.

False sense of security for ETF investors

ETFs started as equity index vehicles, in which brokers acting as Authorized Participants borrowed shares from institutions, hedge funds, mutual funds or their clients' margin accounts to contribute to the Origination Basket of shares. They received ETF shares at Net Asset Value (NAV) in exchange, and sold them to investors at NAV - keeping all of the money. This is standard practice, as brokers have always been able to borrow shares from clients' margin accounts for the purpose of shorting or for lending to other brokers.

Essentially, many ETFs hold assets that have been borrowed. Because there are no specific prohibitions to prevent the same practice from being used in precious metals ETFs, the same methodology is likely being used. Many investors are attracted by the low management fees offered by precious metals ETFs, but few understand the problems that may arise when more than one person has claim to the same asset.

ETF-based financial crisis could make 2008 look like child's play

This ETF structure will work during normal market conditions. However, it may result in losses and disputes if the Authorized Participants, acting as market makers, become insolvent or step aside during a precipitous decline. If a bank or brokerage firm becomes an insolvent Authorized Participant, either the lender of the assets or the ETF shareholders will suffer losses. During a market crash, existing holders may be unable to sell their ETF shares. Although this possibility was considered remote when ETFs were created, the recent and recurring failures of banks and brokerage firms make these concerns far more real .

 

The bottom line on ETFs is that they are tracking vehicles with multiple claims/counterparty risks on their assets as well as their shares. As debt-based stress on the global financial system continues to build, the flash-crash of 2010 may well have foreshadowed an ETF-based financial crisis that will make the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008 look like child's play.

Own bullion with clear title

When we at Bullion Management Group sit down with clients seeking to own bullion, we present them with our Precious Metals Pyramid Chart. Moving up the pyramid increases risk; moving down the pyramid increases safety. A portfolio's foundation should consist of physical bullion owned outright. 

Farther up the pyramid are proxies of bullion in one form or another that are more risky and often less liquid; in other words, the opposite of a safe haven asset you can count on in times of financial stress. Bullion should always meet two criteria: It should not be someone else's liability, and it should not be someone else's promise of performance.

To establish a physical bullion portfolio foundation with metals that are stored on an allocated and insured basis, one that will protect against what could be called ethical mayhem in today's financial sector, investors must, as Governor Dodge advised, make a concerted effort to understand what they are buying. While reading legal documents and prospectuses is tedious, the truth is in the fine print and investors must do their own due diligence, and beware of complex investment structures.

Demand documentation that transfers title directly to the purchaser

For a bullion product, be it a fund or actual bullion bars, to earn its place as the foundation of a portfolio, the bullion purchaser must demand documentation that legally transfers title of specific, physical bars directly to them. Do not accept IOUs, paper proxies or derivatives. It is important to read the purchase documents carefully to ensure they convey legal title. Only after the purchaser has legal title can they enter into a binding custody agreement for bullion storage on an allocated, insured basis. In that agreement, the purchaser must be able to identify all terms and rights concerning insurance and secure, allocated storage.

Proper insurance and allocated storage in a credible, guarded vault costs money, so steer clear of bullion products promising low fees. If the deal appears too good to be true, the physical bullion may not exist. 

What the investor may have is paper bullion that will not offer protection when it is most needed; they may simply be an unsecured creditor of the dealer. It is hardly prudent to be tempted by low storage fees that will save a fraction of a percentage point while risking an entire bullion holding. Short cuts and penny pinching are inadvisable strategies for any asset intended as an ultimate safe haven of wealth protection.

Home storage not worth the risk of invasion or physical assault

Many people think that storing their bullion at home is a good way to economize on physical bullion storage fees, but be aware that any sizable amount of home-stored bullion will not be covered by a household insurance policy.

Keeping a modest--and secret--stash of small-denomination gold or silver for barter purposes is recommended in the event that ATM machines aren't working, or a 'bank holiday' is announced. This may seem like an excess of caution until you consider that, earlier this year, the Bank of Italy authorized the suspension of payments by Bank Network Investments Spa (BNI) without first advising depositors .

 

Unless absolute secrecy is maintained, home storage means putting yourself and your family at risk of a home invasion. There has been an increase of home invasions in England during Asian wedding season, when gold gifts are stored in homes, and street gangs and professional thieves are only too happy to relieve people of their precious metals .

 

Even in peace-loving Canada, a British Columbia man lost his life savings of $750,000 in silver bars to knife-and-gun wielding thugs who arrived at his door disguised as police officers. When he let them in, the 'officers' forced him to open his vault and stole the silver . For any sizable amount of bullion, home storage is clearly not worth the risk.

Many precious metals dealers do not trust banks for storage, and prefer private vault facilities. They may rethink this approach on reviewing a British case where authorities raided three private safe deposit box centres, and opened 6,717 private boxes . The owners of the boxes were required to provide proof of the contents of their box before their possessions were returned. 

Most could not do so, and much of the cash involved went missing while other items are in dispute. The ensuing litigation will likely last for decades; in the meantime, those who stored bullion in their boxes have been relieved of their metal, and may only receive compensation in the amount of the value of the bullion at the time of the raid.

Another consideration is that safe deposit box contents cannot be insured, and there is no proof that anything is actually in the box. Investors who are still interested in private vaults or safe deposit box centres should perform due diligence on the financial condition of the operator and the owner of the vault, since stored assets may be at risk in the case of a private vault's insolvency.

Storing bullion at home, in a safe deposit box or in a private vault is another form of false economy, wherein investors put their safe haven asset at risk to save a small amount in storage fees.

LBMA bullion in LBMA member vaults

Another important aspect of due diligence for a proper foundation of wealth preservation is the assurance that your bullion is in the form of Good Delivery bars, and stored in the vault of a London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) member.

The LBMA is a wholesale, over-the-counter market for trading gold and silver. Its members include the majority of the bullion banks that hold gold, plus producers, refiners, fabricators and other traders throughout the world.

The reason for insisting on LBMA bullion is that it assures the purchaser of the quality and fineness of the bars. Once gold is outside a chain of integrity such as that of the LBMA, it may need to be re-assayed before it can be sold. This prevents gold-plated Tungsten bars from entering the chain of integrity. 

Re-assaying is time consuming, engenders extra cost and once again defeats the purpose of a safe haven store of wealth that offers efficient liquidity.

We constantly hear stories of discount bullion, or bullion sold at no premium to the spot price. The likelihood that this is pure bullion from an ethical source is slight to none.

In case of fire, you need an extinguisher, not a picture of one

Bullion demand is clearly growing as both sovereign nations and the world's largest financial institutions buckle under the burden of unserviceable debt, leaving helicopter-loads of new money printing and associated currency devaluation as the only way out.

Investors can protect their portfolios by purchasing physical bullion. Just as with any large asset purchase, demand documentation that confers legal title to the bullion you are purchasing, review a written custodial agreement that specifies insured, allocated storage without giving the custodian the right to deal with the bullion in any way, and insist on Good Delivery bars.

When the next financial firestorm erupts, you need real, physical bullion and not a paper proxy; just as in a fire you need a real fire extinguisher, not a picture of one.

Will Bullion Prices Fall Further Then Climb to New Heights Again?

Throughout 2012, bullion prices have been rather lackluster. Investors saw silver jump to $35 in February, but fall since. Gold has also seen a sharp drop. Does this spell the end for bullion or is this just a temporary adjustment for goldbugs?

Since February, silver has dropped steadily from more than $35 an ounce to just over $26. Although many analysts are expecting bullion prices to excel over the coming years, some are scratching their heads at the sudden drop in silver. Its precious metals companion, gold, has also seen a significant decline in its value. Upon analysis of the charts, gold bullion reached an astounding $1,921 in September of last year, but it has fallen to just under $1,600 since then.

Are reports of deflation in the United States economy triggering a slowdown in bullion prices? Is a stronger United States dollar also keeping a lid on bullion prices from reaching further success as precious metals have since the year 2000? The latest technical analysis from ScotiaMocatta, part of Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets, suggests that if silver bullion falls to $26 then it could potentially begin liquidation and fall to $18 an ounce. “We believe a break of $26.00 has the ability to trigger liquidation of silver with it looking for $18.00,” wrote the bullion bank in its report.

 According to the analysis, this could be a much bigger picture for a dip in gold prices. “The broader picture suggests gold could move a bit lower, but it will stay in this range until we see definitively whether the bulls will be right about the printing presses at central banks ramping up again, or whether they will hold fire until the world gets a lot worse," said Macquarie analyst Hayden Atkins. India, one of the largest buyers of bullion, especially gold, has been hurt by a terrible monsoon season as well as a weakened Rupee currency.

 This has led the Indian government to keep its bullion purchases flat. Also, demand for bullion in several of the key Asian markets has remained levelled. “South East Asian players have been doing well at picking up the slack but of late they have not,” stated Standard Bank in a note from its commodities strategists. One analyst said the fear of inflation is over and there will be most likely a pullback from bullion and a jump into U.S. Treasuries. “There is zero inflation out there.

With gold being well received as a risk asset, the price is deflated because of the rising dollar,” said Phillip Streible, senior commodities broker at futures brokerage R.J. O'Brien, in an interview with Reuters. Nevertheless, despite the drop in prices, some banks remain certain that bullion will soar once again.

The Royal Bank of Scotland told Bloomberg News (via the Globe and Mail) Friday that gold will climb to $1,800 by the fourth quarter, but then sink once again. “From there, we reiterate our view that this move will be a 'last hurrah' for gold," the bank said. "We continue to see a downtrend commence from that point, which should see gold gradually fade to average $1,200 an ounce by 2015." In the morning trading session, silver was up 0.26 percent to $26.74USD and gold also saw a 0.32 jump to $1,572USD.

Asian Central Banks To Buy Gold

According to Michael Lombardi, lead contributor to Profit Confidential, Asian central banks have the money, but they don’t have enough gold bullion in their reserves. Lombardi believes this is set to change, which means the demand for gold bullion will continue to be very strong for years to come.

New York, NY (PRWEB) July 02, 2012 

According to Michael Lombardi, lead contributor to Profit Confidential, Asian central banks have the money, but they don’t have enough gold bullion in their reserves. Lombardi believes this is set to change, which means the demand for gold bullion will continue to be very strong for years to come.
In the article “He Who Has Money, Buys Gold,” Lombardi explains that Asian central banks have been identified as large buyers of the most recent gold bullion holdings.

“If they want to achieve the level of reserves that the West has, they are going to have to continue to increase their buying of gold bullion dramatically,” says Lombardi.

According to Lombardi, the central banks of Asia are selling European bond holdings to buy gold bullion.

“Kazakhstan’s central bank publicly disclosed that it is aiming for gold bullion to be 20% of its foreign reserves,” he says. “This means that if it only has 12% now, there are more purchases of gold bullion to come.”

The Profit Confidential lead contributor also notes that South Korea has not mentioned anything about its one-percent holding of gold bullion, but that one percent has been accumulated since May 2009.

“The South Korean central bank has recently made more purchases of gold bullion, which seems to indicate South Korea could continue adding to its foreign reserves,” says Lombardi.
Lombardi notes that while Asia has the money through its foreign reserves, the West has the gold bullion.

The Ignorance Is Willful - Dr. Burry

You might remember Dr. Michael Burry as the hedge fund manager who made hundreds of millions of dollars betting on the collapse of the housing market.  You, also, might remember everyone from the mainstream media (MSM) to the Federal Reserve claimed nobody could have seen the 2008 financial collapse coming.  

How did Dr. Burry know a financial catastrophe was on the way while most financial experts and media were totally in the dark?  This year’s commencement address at UCLA’s Department of Economics was given by Dr. Burry, and he says, “The ignorance is willful.”

(Click here to see Dr. Burry’s June 20, 2012,UCLA address.)  

“The ignorance is willful.”  I think you can say the same thing about the ongoing banking crisis.  Last Thursday, credit rating giant Moody’s downgraded the long-term credit ratings of 15 of the biggest North American and European banks.  All but four were cut at least two notches, and these are some of the biggest banks in the world.  RBC, JP Morgan, BNP Paribas, RBS and UBS are household names in Canada, U.S., France, UK and Switzerland.  (Japan’s Numara and Australia’s Macquarie were downgraded earlier by Moody’s.)  (Click here for a complete list of downgraded banks from Business Insider.)  

 I can’t find a time when a major credit ratings company like Moody’s has downgraded this many major banks in so many parts of the world at the same time.  Sure, critics of Moody’s will say they are way behind the curve, but the fact is the company has come out with bold and devastating bank downgrades when the world is being told it is in “recovery.” Please keep in mind, dozens of Italian and Spanish banks were, also, downgraded in the last few months by Moody’s.


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Silver Update 15th June 2012 - Butler and Bernanke

Good break down of recent Ted Butler comments about silver short positions and bullion banks, also the eventual price of silver and silver price manipulation.

China's Gold Investment Demand to Grow More Than 10% - ICBC

Gold-investment demand in China may gain more than 10 percent this year as buyers seek a haven from Europe's debt crisis and the prospect of weakening currencies, according to the country's largest bullion bank.

"Investors here want to hold part of their assets in gold to hedge for the risks, especially now that the financial crisis has evolved into a sovereign crisis," Zheng Zhiguang, general manager of the precious-metals department at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd., said in an interview in Shanghai.

China will topple India this year as the largest bullion market as rising incomes bolster demand, the World Gold Council forecasts. Gold may gain for a 12th year in 2012 as European policy makers strive to avoid a breakup of the euro zone and the U.S. Federal Reserve weighs more stimulus to aid the recovery. Investors in China, facing lackluster equity markets and property curbs, are looking more to the metal, Zheng said June 6.

"It's necessary for individual, institutional or even government investors to hold gold when the value of money is decreasing at a time of possible quantitative easing or excessive money-printing practices," said Zheng.

Investment demand in China was a record 98.6 metric tons in the first quarter, 13 percent higher the same period in 2011, according to figures from the producer-funded council. Last year, it climbed 38 percent to 258.9 tons compared with 2010, as overall demand gained 20 percent to 769.8 tons. China's total gold demand may reach 1,000 tons this year, the WGC has said.

Debt Crisis
Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,599.02 an ounce at 12:41 p.m. in Shanghai, 2.3 percent higher this year. The price touched $1,526.97 on May 16, the lowest level since December, as Europe's debt crisis weakened the euro and investors favored increased dollar holdings.
While a stronger dollar may pressure bullion, "I'm optimistic on the gold prices in the long term because of the China demand," said Zheng. "There are too many uncertainties now in the global economy, politics and the financial sector."

ICBC represents more than 20 percent of the turnover on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, China's largest spot market for precious metals, and more than 30 percent of the gold-leasing business in China, according to Zheng. The lender accounted for about 16 percent of nationwide bullion sales last year.

Gold imports by mainland China from Hong Kong climbed 65 percent to a record 103.6 tons in April, according to data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government released on June 5. The increase came even as Lao Feng Xiang Co. (900905), the mainland's biggest gold-jewelry maker, said in May that gold-demand growth in China may stagnate this year as falling prices put off investors and an economic slowdown crimps sales.

Hurt Exports
The second-largest economy expanded 8.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost three years as Europe's crisis hurt exports. Should Greece exit the euro, the expansion may slow to 6.4 percent in 2012 without stimulus, China International Capital Corp. said on May 23.

China, which on June 7 announced the first cut in borrowing costs since 2008, has curbed property investments to avoid a bubble. The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) declined 15 percent in the past year, while spot bullion gained 5.5 percent.

On a three-month basis, gold demand in China eclipsed India's over the past two quarters, according to the World Gold Council. The increased wealth of China's middle class is helping to drive consumption, Albert Cheng, the council's Far East managing director, said in an interview in May.

Last Resort
Greek voters are set to go the polls for the second time in two months on June 17 in a vote that may determine whether the country stays in the 17-nation euro. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said gold remains the so-called currency of last resort, forecasting a rally by year-end, according to a May 9 report.

Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said on June 9 that he would request as much as 100 billion euros ($126 billion) in emergency loans from the euro area to shore up the country's banking system. That, coupled with weekend trade data from China, helped to boost stocks and commodities today.

As China allowed investors to buy and hold gold only in recent years, "there's explosive, pent-up demand because the Chinese have an attachment to gold," said Zheng, predicting that growth in investment demand will beat the expansion in jewelry sales. "There's great potential for expanding China's physical-gold investment market."

China's Gold Investment Demand to Grow More Than 10% - ICBC

Greece Financial Crisis On the Edge with Max Keiser 05-24-2012

Greece Financial Crisis On the Edge with Max Keiser 05-24-2012


In this edition of the show Max interviews Karl Denninger from market-ticker.org.

He talks about the finical crisis in Greece and how it will unfold in near future.
Karl Denninger was the CEO of MCSNet in Chicago, one of the area's first Internet providers. He is a founding contributor to conservative blog market-ticker.org and was one of the early members of the Tea Party movement.

Blatant Suppression Of Silver Prices

One tactic used by the US government, its trading partners, and allies in its effort to hold down the price of gold is to also manipulate the price of silver. Most of the time, gold and silver prices move in the same direction. Therefore, it the price of silver can be suppressed, that will influence investors and traders into expecting lower gold prices.

On January 17, the spot price of silver closed on the COMEX at $30.11. Yesterday, it closed at $33.70, an increase of 11.9%! Most people would take that as a sign of a strong silver market. However, the silver market is really much stronger than that relative price change.

In the COMEX weekly Commitment of Traders Report as of January 17 (which was reported on January 20), Commercial traders had a net short position on the COMEX of 20,382 contracts. At 5,000 ounces per contract, that means that Commercial traders, which are primarily the bullion banks who are trading partners of the US government, had a short position of 101,910,000 ounces on January 17.

In the Commitment of Traders Report as of February 7, which was released on February 10, the Commercial traders net short position had increased by 14,268 contracts from January 17. As of February 7, the Commercial traders were net short 34,650 contracts, or 173,250,000 ounces!

In other words, the Commercial traders shorted the market by 71,340,000 ounces of silver on the COMEX from January 17 to February 7, increasing their net short position by 70%! The 71 million ounce increase in the short silver position is equal to about 10% of annual worldwide new silver mining supplies!

Normally, the selling of 71 million ounces of silver in a period of three weeks would cause the price of silver to plummet! How much higher would the price of silver have jumped January 17 if this increase of “paper silver” supply had never occurred?

But this short selling wasn’t the only recent blatant tactic to suppress silver prices. At the beginning of February, 1- and 2-month silver lease rates turned negative. Over this past weekend, 3-month silver lease rates turned negative. So, not only do borrowers of silver not have to pay any interest to do so, they will actually be paid a fee by the lender. Obviously, lenders are not making a profit when lease rates are negative.

Negative lease rates send a signal to the market that there is so much of the physical commodity available that it should be worth less than its current price level. Therefore, the price of silver should have been declining in the past two weeks rather than treading water.

Last Friday, the COMEX dropped margin requirements on all the commodities it trades. The margin requirements for gold and silver futures contracts were decreased by 11% to 13%. Usually, when it is easier for investors to borrow money to purchase an investment, that tends to lead to greater demand followed by higher prices. Several people have contacted me to ask about the implications of lower margin requirements for leveraged gold and silver COMEX trading.

I have three thoughts about the decrease in the COMEX gold and silver margin requirements. First, the decrease affected all commodities traded on the COMEX. In the circumstances, it would have looked strange for all margin requirements to be decreased except for gold and silver. It could have resulted in more investors realizing that gold and silver prices were being suppressed.

Second, even though gold and silver margin requirements were reduced last week, they are still far higher than they were a year ago. In effect, the COMEX should have reduced gold and silver margin requirements before last week, and reduced them by an even a greater percentage than happened.

Third, one way that market manipulators can make a profit is by temporarily suppressing prices even though the long-term trend is for higher prices. The Commercial traders can sell a lot of paper contracts to drive down the price, shaking out weak hands investors, then cover those new short positions after prices have fallen. A decline in margin requirements could entice some weak hands investors to enter the gold and silver market just before a major price drop, thereby increasing profits earned by the Commercial traders.

Even though the price of silver has increased from four weeks ago, it is entirely possible that there will be one significant price drop before silver soars. The COMEX March 2012 silver options will expire February 23.

The First Day of Notice for Delivery of March 2012 Futures contracts is February 29. Therefore, the US government has a huge incentive for silver prices to drop from current levels before those two days.

Once we get past February 29, I expect to see some real fireworks as the price of silver shoots up. Look for it to break free of the effects of increased short selling by Commercial traders and negative lease rates that have slowed down the rise in silver prices over the past four weeks.

Blatant Suppression Of Silver Prices